ACUS11 KWNS 102209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102208=20
NEZ000-COZ000-110045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...southwest into central Nebraska and extreme
northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102208Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are possible through
evening, producing locally severe gusts or hail.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a trough with weak wind shift
from northeast CO into southwest and central NE. Very steep
low-level lapse rates have developed with temperatures well over 100
F, and low-level moisture is being maintained along and north of the
surface trough, though drying has occurred from eastern CO into
western KS. Capping is clearly minimal as convection is already
increasing over southwest NE. This activity could produce localized
severe gusts or hail in the short term.

In addition to the developing NE activity, additional upstream
storms over far northeast CO may persist and enhance low-level
convergence with an outflow boundary. All these factor suggest an
increase in storms over the next several hours from CO into NE along
the length of the surface trough. Shear profiles do not favor much
organization potential, but weak veering with height could favor a
few slow-moving cells, and perhaps a propagating cluster as outflow
increases over time. Although capping increases over eastern NE,
moisture is more robust there, and could potentially support
continued activity there later tonight.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dFWeCN3dqT9TmIpRDB3soCzBrLUSMnmYVhMGl7wkPDXmuDkge44D3bs7laK60RCBACWrvvns= 3jaARMHnQGTkX-ZNIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40650277 40900272 41240220 41340118 41459968 41489901
41359855 41179833 40829826 40509832 40299909 40090046
40120171 40420265 40650277=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 061913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061913=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-062115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061913Z - 062115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
eastern NM, posing a threat mainly for sporadic wind gusts. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal mixing is supporting deeper convection
initiation attempts along the Sacramento and Sandia-Manzano
Mountains in central NM. A couple of anvils are beginning to spread east-southeastward, indicative of modest westerly upper-level flow
impinging upon the area. Current analysis suggests some inhibition
remains along and to the east of the terrain, which may temper
short-term initiation attempts. Diurnal heating and mixing will
support moistening atop deepening boundary layers, resulting in
increased deep convection potential in the next few hours. Effective
shear around 30-40 kts is anticipated this afternoon, yielding
straight hodographs throughout the area. This could support
semi-organized convection moving off of the higher terrain into
eastern NM in the next few hours. Should this occur, localized
stronger downdrafts could yield sporadic gusty winds amidst deep,
well-mixed boundary layers. The overall threat will be tempered by
diminishing potential buoyancy aloft, and watch issuance is not
anticipated this afternoon and evening.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4fD0t0WG0DL5ohJN-u3e6wtjFk6R6_dv8VEv_DzcQYY20333fpwuqYD6i1mWfIwTCLpfe37Mn= E_NxRXiZjDVJbnKTWA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32550368 32360432 32380516 32670548 33410561 34180553
35380523 35860481 36000403 35730315 34850271 33720285
32910325 32550368=20


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