ACUS11 KWNS 102001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102001=20
MNZ000-102130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...

Valid 102001Z - 102130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail remains possible with the elevated thunderstorm
ongoing over central MN.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster initially over far southeast ND
and far west-central MN moved southeastward during the past hour,
with the storms along its western periphery dissipating. Those
storms within the central and eastern portions of the cluster have
persisted, although overall updraft intensity has fluctuated.
Diurnal heating has been tempered by the abundant cloudiness within
the downstream air mass. Some destabilization has occurred as a
result of low-level moist advection, but not to the extent as
previously anticipated. As such, these storms remain elevated.=20

Some hail remains possible, particularly east of the ongoing watch
where the strongest updrafts are now located. However, uncertainty
regarding convective evolution (storm longevity in particular)
currently precludes watch issuance in these areas.

..Mosier.. 07/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9biO1BBSIlovD4_RGrV35zhwr5E3YOB2h1fTQUSDsgfpHXAyIdieJBD4kxk2nafneuFEsXcxj= z4PVAw1Q2EmhZeXGZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46429561 46919500 46949399 46639295 46079275 45679380
45919506 46429561=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 060850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060850=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-061015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...451...

Valid 060850Z - 061015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450, 451
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat continues early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A measured severe wind gust to 52 kt (60 mph) was
recently recorded at KPYX in Ochiltree County TX with a small bowing
cluster moving southeastward. While the current intensity of this
activity on area radars appears somewhat marginal, there is still
strong deep-layer shear and a 25-30 kt southerly low-level jet
present across the TX Panhandle into western OK. This should
continue to provide organization of the current cluster in the short
term. The airmass immediately downstream is not overly unstable with
prior convection/outflow shunting the more moist low-level airmass
farther south. Still, isolated severe/damaging winds remaining the
primary threat given the linear nature of the ongoing convection and
up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE present. Somewhat more discrete
thunderstorms across the western TX Panhandle that have recently
developed may also pose some threat for large hail. With the current southeastward track of the small cluster, a southward extension in
area to Severe Thunderstorm Watches 450/451 may be needed.

..Gleason.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9SgwYBr4V-HAVey5vyq8fQGdugA4u1ShM1iDTFXjLB7hS7fopZs8kUndwSbCWMSQJN_XEhzSn= 5G9hxbpTahhAI0Slpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 35700253 36320067 36499932 35289880 34829933 34800214
35700253=20


=3D =3D =3D
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