• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1438

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 10, 2022 19:53:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 101953
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101953=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-102130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1438
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

    Areas affected...parts of far eastern Texas into central Louisiana
    and far southwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101953Z - 102130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
    storm cores. A WW issuance is unlikely, with the severe threat
    expected to be isolated.

    DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a cold front
    that is slowly sagging southward across eastern Texas into southern Mississippi. With continued strong diurnal heating, thunderstorm
    coverage should increase through the day. While tropospheric winds
    should remain weak, the strong heating/mixing of a low-level air
    mass, characterized by surface upper 70s F dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km
    0-3 km lapse rates, will support 4000+ SBCAPE through the remainder
    of the afternoon. As such, isolated robust thunderstorm downdrafts
    may produce a couple of strong to potentially severe wind gusts.
    Since the severe wind coverage is likely to remain sparse through
    the afternoon, a WW issuance is not currently expected.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__77ylD_V57FgJxPziAXsgbE-dfmGM7w5DLskDe4MXcMuXgHDapuLyRlGxKMOwOJ2SagLmRWT= YDUly4NVKMEEkVaanc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 30999492 31539377 31409165 31289027 31139003 30809026
    30559060 30439096 30329152 30339231 30419299 30449368
    30479415 30559453 30629475 30999492=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 06, 2023 06:41:15
    ACUS11 KWNS 060641
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060640=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1438
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of far southwestern KS into the OK/TX
    Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

    Valid 060640Z - 060815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will
    likely continue this morning as thunderstorms move southeastward.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell moving from Baca County in
    southeastern CO into Cimarron County OK recently produced a measured
    gust to 71 kt (82 mph) at KSPD. Downstream, convection along the
    OK/KS line is beginning to show some signs of clustering/upscale
    growth as it begins to overlap with the nose of a 30-35 kt
    south-southeasterly low-level jet present over the TX Panhandle. High-resolution guidance, including the latest run of the HRRR,
    continue to struggle with convective placement and evolution across
    this region over the next few hours. Current expectation is that
    thunderstorms will probably grow upscale into one or more small
    bowing clusters as they move southeastward across far southwestern
    KS, the OK Panhandle, and the northern TX Panhandle. Severe/damaging
    winds would likely remain the primary threat with this mainly linear convection, although some large hail could occur with any supercell
    that can remain at least semi-discrete. A fairly favorable
    thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream suggests that
    this severe wind/hail will likely persist for at least a few more
    hours this morning across parts of the OK/TX Panhandles.

    ..Gleason.. 07/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7axhL951W82BjZfBqHihbEFozAbUuC7KahTsrWPBf-KWcPqdqkkliqz0W6glC0Ylw0cEZW2vc= _Dx-Vzzr8NYe1iBPH4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36920271 36150261 35670213 35590113 35760022 36520000
    37030022 37140128 36940204 36920271=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)