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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1437

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 10, 2022 17:37:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 101737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101736=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1437
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast ND...West-Central MN...Far Northeast SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101736Z - 101930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible with the ongoing thunderstorms,
    with some potential for damaging wind gusts as the afternoon
    progress. A watch may eventually be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed over southeast
    SD and adjacent northwest MN, within the low-level warm-air
    advection to the west of the ongoing convective line over northeast
    MN. Air mass is this region is characterized by steep mid-level
    lapse rates and moderate vertical shear. Modest low-level stability
    is currently in place, contributing to the elevated character of the
    ongoing storms. However, diurnal heating and moisture advection
    should help destabilize the low-levels while steep mid-level lapse
    rates persist. As a result, the overall environment will gradually
    become more favorable for surface-based storms throughout the
    afternoon.

    The current environment favors hail as the primary severe risk, but
    the damaging wind potential should gradually increase as the
    low-levels destabilize. Convective evolution of this cluster is
    uncertain, but some potential for further organization/upscale
    growth exists. Convective trends will be monitored closely for
    potential watch issuance downstream across portions of southeast ND,
    far northeast SD, and northwest/west-central MN.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-s-WtzOllHd1fsPnE0AEkDxIi4V-iQu9k4p1kN5JhtZ523lUdojBguA3kq_tjA_bJkFQKLQut= 8gcVI4jmIr9ouYX2Ys$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46379849 47129807 47219690 47379477 46169505 45659624
    45919805 46379849=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 06, 2023 05:47:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 060547
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060547=20
    TXZ000-060715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1437
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 060547Z - 060715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for severe winds may persist as thunderstorms
    spread southeastward. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster is ongoing across parts of the western
    TX Panhandle. A recent measured severe gust up to 78 mph was
    recorded at a West TX Mesonet site in Parmer County TX with this
    activity. Some threat for severe/damaging should continue in the
    short term as these thunderstorms spread southeastward towards and
    north of Lubbock. A 25-35 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet may
    aid in thunderstorm maintenance by providing a continued source of
    lift and warm/moist advection. A fairly favorable thermodynamic
    environment is present downstream, with around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
    available. Recent radar reflectivity data also show an outflow
    boundary moving southwestward in advance of the cluster. This
    boundary's interaction and impact with the ongoing thunderstorms
    remains unclear. But, there is some chance it may act to undercut
    and weaken new updrafts on the northern flank. Regardless, trends
    are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6nQft3fLHxR_MqBtEuIWP380Ml_Ekih2GfDxJ-Y2DyzAtLw4N7crs06BThOfetkFtpzShq4AF= l89plQX0w6aJS9rBLE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...

    LAT...LON 34340268 34690199 34510016 33620042 33420203 34340268=20


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