• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1436

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 10, 2022 14:49:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 101449
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101449=20
    MNZ000-101615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1436
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

    Areas affected...Northern MN...MN Arrowhead

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...

    Valid 101449Z - 101615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The ongoing convective line will likely persist into more
    of northern MN and the MN Arrowhead, with an attendant threat for
    damaging wind gusts. A new watch is being considered across these
    areas.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line continues to progress eastward
    across northern MN at around 40-45 kt. Southern portion of the line
    has maintained its intensity better than the northern portion.
    Recent radar also shows a more well-defined rear-inflow jet with the
    southern portion of the line. However, the air mass downstream of
    this southern portion of line is less buoyant that farther northern,
    largely as a result warm mid-level temperatures. Even so, the
    thermodynamics should improve slightly amid diurnal heating and
    modest moisture advection.=20

    Given the organized character of the southern portion of the line,
    the expectation is that it will persist for at least the next few
    hours. Current storm motion places this portion of the line at the
    edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 around 1515-1530Z. The threat
    for damaging wind gusts will likely persist, and a new watch is
    being considered downstream across northern MN/MN Arrowhead.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7x5_FTlIXL6RHng0Ef7_Lb-srAgiyJiQ6G6DF37-lFH27Kbh9hF0sbDzRZPCDP6OyyvVvJoun= 9iTveBS3J1ug75XE1A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47969598 48779617 49039544 48729353 48019243 46829270
    46259415 46219529 46549627 47969598=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 06, 2023 04:13:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 060413
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060412=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1436
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1112 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern
    Kansas...northeastern New Mexico...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle
    vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...450...

    Valid 060412Z - 060615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449, 450
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A more focused area of intensifying and organizing
    thunderstorm development still appears possible across the Texas and
    Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through 1-2 AM CDT, with a tendency to
    spread eastward and southeastward overnight, accompanied by a risk
    for potentially damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored for
    an additional severe weather watch east of WW 450.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development
    persists, probably aided by large-scale forcing for ascent
    associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. This
    forcing remains broadly focused near the Raton Mesa vicinity into
    the Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of western Oklahoma, above conglomerate southward advancing convective outflow. Through 05-07Z,
    this may strengthen further across the Texas Panhandle, near a
    modestly strengthening (30-40 kt) nocturnal southerly low-level jet.
    It is possible that this could still contribute to a consolidating,
    more focused area of increasing thunderstorm development, with
    inflow of moderate CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear
    providing potential for substantive intensification and
    organization.

    ..Kerr.. 07/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4OUAcgrKbsOM5kBFXWkYq7znrsi_1PaeNLSEo8F51NgB-V_ho7kV6ZHS4o8zAUn1IaSb_MQM_= Gu06V9vQ2AxEygYVAM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 38060376 38220218 37799995 36939891 34820043 34500349
    36090349 38060376=20


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