ACUS11 KWNS 100032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100032=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...Southern Mississippi and parts of western Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

Valid 100032Z - 100230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds will continue into
southern Mississippi and parts of west-central Alabama as storms
move out of WW 451. However, a downstream watch is not currently
anticipated given recent storm trends.

DISCUSSION...Initially semi-discrete cells and thunderstorm clusters
have now consolidated into a cohesive, southward-propagating line of
storms across central MS/AL. While a few measured severe wind gusts
have been reported within the past hour, most measured winds have
been in the 25-35 mph range. Regional reflectivity and velocity data
shows that this line is predominantly outflow dominant, and MRMS
vertically integrated ice, as well as echo top data, suggests that
most cells within the line are beginning to weaken (with the
exception of a more robust cell north of the Jackson, MS area).=20

The downstream environment across southern MS remains supportive for
convective maintenance with ample instability (3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and little inhibition, which should allow for a continued
threat of sporadic damaging winds across the region. To the east, a
residual cold pool from prior convection has weakened instability
across southern AL and increased MLCIN per recent mesoanalysis
estimates and surface observations. While a few damaging gusts can't
be ruled out across southern AL, the severe potential appears lower.
Conditions will continue to be monitored, but based on recent
convective trends a downstream watch is currently not anticipated.

..Moore.. 07/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9GaTl3hpMUrm50YiRn_MjFpJHeFqYiurlnFtuSjHHQB_0-cthFxJZ5aPswT9dyy3VukWlm0-E= -cQVsX77u-ysV6O_VI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33479046 33478810 33648632 33298582 32828580 32438649
32028738 31638793 31268831 31048922 31088984 31139035
31449075 31919085 32539080 33479046=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 051839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051838=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...southern NC...SC...and eastern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051838Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Upscale growth into loosely organized clusters is possible
this afternoon across portions of GA and the Carolinas. Sporadic
wind gusts and hail would be possible, but watch issuance appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm complexes have developed across
portions of central-southern NC southward through SC. These storms
are percolating in an environment with 2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE amidst
relatively weak 0-6-km shear (around 15 kts per area VADs). The
uncapped, quite moist troposphere will support continued deep
updraft development throughout the afternoon. Cold-pool
consolidation should be tempered in the short-term by relatively
warm downdraft production (due to high moisture), but some upscale
growth seems possible in the next few hours given high expected
coverage. This is consistent with ongoing convective trends in
central NC and coastal SC as well as short-term numerical guidance.
Should this occur, locally damaging wind gusts may be possible along
with sporadic hail in the stronger cores.

35-40 kt gusts have also been reported with the thunderstorm complex
moving through north-central GA. While this system is not
well-depicted in numerical guidance, it may persist as it moves
eastward along/ahead of a cold front into increasingly buoyant and
uncapped air. This would bring a heightened threat of sporadic wind
gusts, and perhaps local instances of hail, through eastern GA into
SC in the next few hours. Despite increasing convective coverage,
the potential for an organized severe threat appears rather limited,
and watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Y-UioY2egfcEnxGdJgdFDkjs3vgINludGA36_PPkC--6V0cdBBynuGdWCRrjdbbwqRDOmiYE= P2OnWcZq3iaUZqG3jc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32987929 32607982 32438026 32558081 32828153 32958240
33178290 33638308 34108277 34328206 34398108 34918031
35607977 35827928 35837835 35527776 34997734 34327751
33747791 33747844 33467890 32987929=20


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