ACUS11 KWNS 092057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092057=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...Central/north TX into extreme southwest
AR/northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092057Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are
possible late this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon across parts of central and north TX, generally in the
vicinity of diffuse and weak frontal zone. Deep-layer flow/shear is
weak, but with temperatures rising into the 102-107 F range and
generally large DCAPE across the region, isolated downbursts will be
possible as pulse storms intensify and then collapse. Some weak
clustering is also possible as outflows consolidate, though
convection is generally expected to remain disorganized. The
isolated damaging wind threat will be diurnal in nature and tend to
diminish this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aWnyaUTVBRekNCEo2q0C51wWYHviH-SBaf9Ny9BJ5rJwdCFyNxzJW8OldxswGTJBBhz6JiEZ= ZX2cktJjKx6WuNMotY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 33249766 33519537 33619419 33679357 33249327 32469306
32129572 31659720 31319854 31099988 31660057 32400041
32719951 32909887 33249766=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 050548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050548=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-050715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern/southeastern KS and western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

Valid 050548Z - 050715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
continues.

SUMMARY...An MCS should continue to produce 55-70 mph wind gusts for
a couple more hours as it moves southeastward.

DISCUSSION...Multiple measured severe wind gusts from 58-67 mph have
recently been observed with an organized line of convection across
far eastern into southeastern KS and western MO. Outflow from these thunderstorms has started to surge out well ahead of reflectivities
across parts of southeastern KS. The southern portion of the line
may slowly weaken and tend to become more elevated in response. The
northern half of the MCS is now crossing the KS/MO line, with
enhanced velocities noted on area radars. Severe/damaging winds
around 55-70 mph should continue to be a threat in the short term
across far eastern KS into western MO, as the downstream airmass
appears to be sufficiently unstable to support surface-based
convection for at least a couple more hours. Given current trends,
some expansion in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 may need to
be considered in parts of west-central MO.

..Gleason.. 07/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7C69GGasuLiUPyeLLNIYE7scwapyq5UTZ0sMzO86yTx6gt6D9Uk-GtAnnIosuoDMXhzox4WN2= 1Eg4x5e5vFI_76oSqY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38099705 38369598 38989515 39729459 39559333 38659345
37369405 37089495 37049648 37489705 38099705=20


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