• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1428

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 09, 2022 20:37:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 092037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092037=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-092230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1428
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

    Areas affected...Far East-Central ID...Southwestern/Western MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 092037Z - 092230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
    few hours. Initially more discrete storms could produce large hail
    and strong wind gusts, with a transition to more of a linear mode
    anticipated later.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave trough
    moving northeastward through the northern Great Basin continues to
    spread across the northern Rockies. This ascent is interacting with
    the moderately moist air mass in place over the northern Rockies,
    contributing building cumulus across the high terrain. Steep
    mid-level lapse rates are also in place (sampled well by the 19Z TFX
    sounding), resulting in at least moderate buoyancy throughout the
    region. Convective initiation has already occurred over far
    east-central ID, and the expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to
    increase over adjacent southwestern MT over the next hour or two.=20

    Combination of ascent, strong vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk
    shear 45-50 kt), and moderate buoyancy (generally less than 2000
    J/kg of MLCAPE) is forecast to result in organized storms, including
    a few discrete supercells capable of large hail and/or strong wind
    gusts. Isolated instances of very large hail are possible. Upscale
    growth is anticipated later this evening as storm outflow
    amalgamates. When this occurs, the probability for strong wind
    gusts will increase, including the potential for a few significant
    wind gusts.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9If5Bpj5GdEYvLyFnXDY7exQGeJt4kA8YE64p555ssKspS3_pGjh3En4jRvbA0zKkvcjX-Vd_= xIHHQer-RupsuB_iO8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...

    LAT...LON 44931396 45191475 45791519 46641526 47341475 47881348
    48081123 47091033 45801081 44941248 44931396=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 05, 2023 03:37:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 050336
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050336=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1428
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas and western MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

    Valid 050336Z - 050500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds accompanying a
    southeastward-advancing MCS continues tonight, and a new watch
    downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, a line of storms has
    re-organized into a southeastward-advancing MCS across northeastern
    Kansas -- with a forward motion of around 30 kt. Several gusts up to
    70 mph have been reported with this activity. As the line of storms
    continues to intercept a 30-kt southerly low-level jet (sampled by
    regional VWP), the line should maintain intensity despite modest
    deep-layer shear -- with a corresponding risk of gusts up to 70 mph.
    Convective trends will be monitored for an additional watch
    downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4nWyZzPxftO_dcsYJNPOvHNTIf1SU6xScUMVg-6-WyOlt_Ks47Aikx0F3dLd_gqAnj0sMa9FR= uxr2T4jd0hq3qlIY-I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38389842 38999751 39679637 40009560 40099522 40079458
    39969420 39749383 39449368 38929361 38489372 37969419
    37479503 37199591 37119662 37109717 37159762 37309793
    37539820 37919838 38119839 38389842=20


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