ACUS11 KWNS 090701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090701=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-090830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...northwest ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

Valid 090701Z - 090830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe bowing squall line will continue to pose threat
for damaging gusts across northwest North Dakota the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An intense bowing squall line will continue to track
eastward around 40-50 kt over the next few hours. The most recent
measured gust with this line was in Wolf Point, with a gust to 62
kt. Severe gusts will likely continue into northwest ND as the bow
traverses a southerly low-level jet axis. Additionally, downstream
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F are contributing to a
corridor of strong instability. This should continue to support an
organized bow a few more hours. The current track of this system
will take is outside of WW 449 before the 09z expiration time, and a
local extension in time/space, or a new severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed for parts of northwest ND.

..Leitman.. 07/09/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6tGEGJq5QwTpnA0w0KvchKZf4tv1kqRk6vhZhgsLGlq5leXESBxklgO_9A8lgL4bPuaHV-ZAt= kU8-KhuLPWXHMQCo7w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 49180173 48840125 48340113 47890123 47610138 47480158
47420283 47560448 47590496 47700498 48050483 48540469
49170493 49220468 49240311 49180173=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 050158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050158=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern NE...northeastern KS...far
southwestern IA...and far northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...447...

Valid 050158Z - 050330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 447
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 445 and 447 tonight.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data depicts several loosely organized
thunderstorm clusters tracking east-southeastward along a southeastward-advancing cold front over southeast NE into northeast
KS tonight. While these storms have become increasingly
outflow-dominant over the last hour owing to weaker deep-layer shear downstream, robust outflow and a related damaging-wind risk
continues with this activity. Additionally, regional VWP data shows
a gradual increase in a southerly low-level jet, which may aid in
some re-intensification of storms as they continue southeastward.
While overall confidence in severe-caliber storms moving
southeastward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 is low given
increasing nocturnal boundary-layer stability and weaker deep-layer
shear, a local expansion of the watch could be needed depending on
convective trends.

..Weinman.. 07/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5thj1yJ8VEfXkoyzU04V8dDmmR9qp42AWUPia77qaOcXvfAi6phG19eHumM9TijFY0709Yx-j= qznhMrGin_bdRk0s7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 40629763 40789681 40839624 40829578 40759523 40529463
40279450 39799452 39559474 39339502 39109541 38979593
38909662 38879710 38899753 39059791 39309823 39719833
40109825 40469800 40629763=20


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