ACUS11 KWNS 090431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090430=20
MTZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

Valid 090430Z - 090600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
continues.

SUMMARY...Intense squall line with embedded bowing structures will
pose a risk of significant wind damage.

DISCUSSION...An intense squall line currently extends across
western/central Valley and central Garfield counties MT, and is
moving east-northeastward at ~50 knots. The air mass ahead of the
storms remains very moist (70+ dewpoints) and unstable with forecast
soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE values of
3500-4000 J/kg. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and increasing
mesoscale organization suggest the potential for this bowing
structure to maintain significant intensity as it tracks across WW
449 and into northwest ND. The KGGW VAD profile also shows
relatively strong low-level winds, which could result in isolated
and brief QLCS spin-ups along the leading edge of the most intense
bow structures.

..Hart.. 07/09/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4994_eOSAKlP42CIWAHG2ieGuuHgxC4xk6-TvZ6ebpG0WaF3eRSlL-Ejlhw8VxlLnngz6W5YK= FFO7m9jaEX4wh3EGPg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

LAT...LON 46960697 48030689 48890734 49000581 48740501 48050495
47410537 46970625 46890669 46960697=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 042333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042333=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western into north-central KS and
south-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...446...

Valid 042333Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 446
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain possible across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446 and 445 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are ongoing in the vicinity of a NE-SW-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across
north-central into western KS this evening. The primary concern with
this activity continues to be large hail to around 2.5 inches in the
near-term -- especially given the continued discrete/semi-discrete
mode and elongated midlevel hodographs near the frontal boundary.
With time, the boundary is expected to shift southeastward as a cold
front, with the potential for brief upscale growth given the
strengthening frontal ascent and deep-layer shear oriented largely
parallel to the boundary. While this evolution would tend to promote
an increasing damaging-wind risk, there is some potential that the
front undercuts the ongoing storms with time.

..Weinman.. 07/04/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TILLjcBmkLJqzONYeVmxnQg75y-hwCbSZn7pMlesskkETuVsSt6A5fKZUnWtEzLpAviQPuTO= 44XY8AxTo5p5xPhb0s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38320196 38680198 39120168 39590109 40469930 40579851
40419809 40039795 39719810 39259875 38270082 38130146
38140183 38320196=20


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