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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1422

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 09, 2022 00:14:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 090014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090013=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-090215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1422
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0713 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

    Areas affected...Western Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

    Valid 090013Z - 090215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail, wind continues across WW 448,
    and will likely persist for the next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue across central
    to western Montana with several reports of severe hail (including
    hail stones up to 2 inches) and 60+ mph winds noted within the past
    1-2 hours. Most measures of convective intensity, including
    lightning trends, cloud-top temperatures, and vertically integrated
    ice, and reflectivity/velocity products continue to show robust
    convection.=20

    While a few areas have been stabilized in the wake of ongoing
    convection, the environment generally remains favorable for severe
    weather. RAP mesoanalyses estimate MLCAPE values between 1000-1500
    J/kg, effective bulk shear values near 40-50 knots, and steep 0-3 km
    lapse rates near 8-9 C/km. These estimates are supported by the TFX
    00 UTC sounding as well as regional VWP observations. Elongated
    hodographs are noted in such observations, and given the somewhat
    isolated nature of the convection and new development noted upstream
    across northern ID, implies that the potential for discrete
    supercells capable of severe wind/hail will continue for at least
    the next couple of hours. Storms will likely shift east out of the
    watch later this evening, and a downstream watch will be considered
    for portions of eastern MT.

    ..Moore.. 07/09/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_uj0PfDNEZ5Y75RRFLjawMTp8NvWWEnrkdD8aQiUNsugj2eoqeBHd0imKrgY_dcZ21RZqdHzt= bRV_axrhUFbKBhVboc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 45311442 46051452 46891427 48531305 49141216 49080982
    48570951 47780915 47230896 46510891 45910930 45751038
    45311149 45081239 44921311 44921377 45311442=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 04, 2023 19:41:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 041941
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041941=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-042045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1422
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...much of northern and eastern Colorado...southern
    Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 041941Z - 042045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage from southern Wyoming and
    northern Colorado across much of eastern Colorado, with damaging
    outflow winds and area of hail.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing along the Front Range,
    while heating continues to destabilize the air mass. Northeasterly
    surface winds will maintain low-level moisture with CAPE values
    gradually increasing this afternoon. The northeasterly surface winds
    beneath midlevel westerlies of 40-50 kt are resulting in favorable
    hodographs for cellular storm mode, and this should eventually
    enhance hail potential. With time, increasing outflows are expected
    to merge and surge east across eastern CO and eventually western KS
    where a well-heated boundary layer awaits.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wkD7Aiqp9IkxyTT5DGzrbNLvX6U3FDfAeA0wSUhVxHEncIJKZiq9o4cSFovA02lFByfb8BUz= -JAfQHPu9TqU7Tu_qo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39450585 40080606 40780612 41230599 41480561 41510506
    41480486 41240453 40930420 40310320 39840256 39160215
    38270219 37800249 37610306 37840402 38230489 38670546
    39450585=20


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