• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1420

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 08, 2022 21:36:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 082136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082135=20
    OKZ000-082330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1420
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

    Areas affected...southwest and central OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082135Z - 082330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the
    more intense downdrafts through the early evening. Coverage of
    expected severe gusts will likely preclude the need for a small
    severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a southwest-northeast oriented
    cluster of recently developed strong to severe storms along a cool
    front/wind shift. Surface conditions over southwest OK are hot with temperatures in the 104-108 deg F range with dewpoints in the upper
    50s to lower 60s. Farther northeast, temperatures are in the lower
    100s with dewpoints in the middle 60s. Given the gradient in
    surface dewpoints, PW ranges from 1.5 inches southwest to 1.75 in
    central OK per RAP-based objective analysis. The large to very
    large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions are yielding nearly
    dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface through 700 mb. Although
    the wind profile is weak and only supporting pulse thunderstorms,
    small to marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger
    updrafts (0.5-1.5 inches in diameter). However, it seems the
    greater severe risk will likely be isolated severe gusts. Peak
    gusts will probably range 60-75 mph.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 07/08/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_In-plCRaCQaj7BoiW2qQSXc1WKsSFZTwocb-drHBn8YZUceS6zRWysROL-ngJq5dKEWwOZ1I= peJld2xcHQ3yggrpGA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34959985 35729805 35519753 35169760 34539946 34589979
    34959985=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 04, 2023 18:23:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 041823
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041822=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-042015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1420
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the Ark-La-Tex region...central
    MS...and west-central AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041822Z - 042015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway across
    portions of the Ark-La-Tex region eastward through central MS and
    west-central AL. Sporadic wind gusts and small hail are possible
    with the strongest storms.

    DISCUSSION...Several deepening updrafts are observed in the
    Ark-La-Tex region eastward through west-central AL. Convective
    temperatures have been breached after a few hours of diurnal
    heating, yielding a broad Cu field atop a mixed, moist boundary
    layer. Stronger development is thus far focused along a broad
    confluence zone through the region. MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg is
    currently present, which is expected to continue increasing due to
    heating and moist advection. Continued initiation will lead to broad
    convective coverage, with some multicell-type evolution possible in
    areas with focused storm-scale initiation overlapping slightly
    stronger mid-level flow. In these regions, southwesterly 500-mb flow
    around 20 kts could yield around 15-25 kts of effective shear,
    leading to local updraft intensification and upscale growth. Amidst
    the broad Cu field and developing updrafts in the Southeast, this
    currently appears most likely in the highlighted area along the
    confluence zone from the Ark-La-Tex eastward through west-central
    AL. Given ample potential buoyancy and locally enhanced shear,
    damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with any stronger
    updrafts/complexes. However, kinematic support for storm-scale
    intensification is rather meager, which will temper the overall
    severe threat.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4X6I2BaklM24lBzUfw4GwYd0V78ZxHoPGMvQJi0GWm4AkXZQRq3E6pi3EiuUGrYL2oSNDXtWB= Pt2QAPfN8Y_b5bjrbs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31439119 31609307 31999409 32549449 33099450 33469398
    33869245 34079102 34068974 33958874 33608797 32898759
    32148782 31628858 31458997 31439119=20


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