• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1416

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 08, 2022 17:30:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 081730
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081729=20
    WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-081930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1416
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

    Areas affected...south central and eastern Kentucky...adjacent
    portions of northern Tennessee into central West Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081729Z - 081930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...There appears at least some potential for an intensifying
    cluster of thunderstorms to become better organized with increasing
    risk for damaging wind gusts, while spreading southeastward across
    the region through 4-6 PM EDT. It is still uncertain that a severe
    weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored for this
    possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently begun to
    intensify along the leading edge of southeastward advancing
    convective outflow, as surface heating has contributed to erosion of
    inhibition for boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high
    moisture content (including surface dew points in the mid/upper 70s
    F). It is possible that this is being aided by large-scale ascent
    associated with weak low-level warm advection, and substantive
    further intensification is possible as activity advances eastward
    and southeastward during the next few hours.=20=20

    The inflow into the updrafts is probably becoming characterized by
    large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. However the westerly
    deep-layer mean flow within which the convection is embedded appears
    only on the order of 10-20 kt, with activity generally out ahead of
    the leading edge of a belt of 20-30 kt (in the 850-500 mb layer)
    flow nosing through the lower Ohio Valley.=20=20

    Still, with continuing upscale convective growth, the development of
    a lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex is possible.=20
    This may be accompanied by sufficient strengthening of rear inflow
    to contribute to increasing risk for strong surface gusts at least
    approaching severe limits, aided by heavy precipitation loading in
    downdrafts.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/08/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-RIQPXrkLN95dA_fiLlC9W-5F4hDetL9kXsoKW5NwRLpwgkj9-m3UVdhxyohXl_kuzXSqEQH1= pz1BCJdBQNYCZz7S9o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

    LAT...LON 37348575 37398527 37508460 37708413 38138346 38458285
    38528106 38288064 36798335 36388492 36968611 37348575=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 04, 2023 03:38:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 040338
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040338=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-040515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1416
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1038 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...Far southeastern MT...northeastern WY...western
    SD...and far northwestern NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...442...443...

    Valid 040338Z - 040515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441, 442,
    443 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 441, 442, and 443 tonight. Significant gusts upwards of
    80-90 mph and isolated large hail remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...An intense upscale-growing MCS is tracking
    northeastward at around 40 kt across southwestern SD and
    northwestern NE tonight. This line has a history of producing
    significant gusts upwards of 80 mph. Within the pre-convective
    environment, rich boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle 60s
    dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to
    moderate surface-based instability. In addition, regional VWP data
    indicates a plume of strengthening low-level warm advection ahead of
    the approaching line of storms. These factors, along with around 50
    kt of effective shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge
    gust front, should support the maintenance of this bowing segment
    with east-northeastward extent. The primary concern with this
    activity is significant gusts upward of 80-90 mph. A new Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of
    northwest/north-central NE, as this line could move into this region
    during the next hour.

    Farther north in northeastern WY into western SD, slightly stronger
    deep-layer shear characterized by large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs, is supporting supercell clusters capable of producing
    large hail and damaging winds.

    ..Weinman.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9KbaeuK1RqUF8UNwJjZq8OYjiHUB94SnNSPIoI_hFZFW7q78vPZ47FKmG_bvcjZP9NlO73Gv8= 1qHo9ehYOfcxXk_cZQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 42440345 42860371 43360414 44540470 45000451 45240417
    45320367 45300308 45110262 44760223 43160143 42660138
    42420188 42360275 42440345=20


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