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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1414

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 08, 2022 00:53:06
    ACUS11 KWNS 080052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080052=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0752 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...far northeast
    Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080052Z - 080245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of a weak surface
    front could become sufficiently intense to pose a threat for severe
    wind, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. This threat will likely
    remain too limited to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms have continued to
    develop along and ahead of a weak surface cold front across
    southeast NE. While most of this convection has remained weak with
    little lightning, a few more intense cells have shown transient
    signs of weak low-level rotation over the past hour. The environment
    across the NE/KS/MO/IA region is sufficiently buoyant for
    thunderstorm development, and the southeast to easterly winds in the
    lowest 1 km (sampled by surface observations, regional VWPs and
    ACARs soundings within the past couple of hours) is supporting 30-35
    knots of effective bulk shear. The ACARs sounding and the 00 UTC TOP
    RAOB also revealed around 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH, which is
    slightly higher than recent mesoanalyses are indicating. Given this
    environment and recent observed trends, a brief/weak tornado with
    the more robust updrafts is possible. However, confidence in the
    overall severe threat is low given the weak lift, meager storm
    intensities, and relatively poor storm longevity within this
    environment. A watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/08/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xqoQrI2xuYaYx6cdcKCM6vd1qjMDpnOLVMFo4mp4CJHavAgGSMRRvFtqGBzvf5upihSGriYy= eiyUuyp9xms2TiQn5U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 41559536 41309454 40659419 39959437 39739504 39729637
    39839736 40229803 40869792 41269733 41599648 41559536=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 04, 2023 00:29:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 040029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040029=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-040200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0729 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...Delmarva/New Jersey/Virginia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...440...

    Valid 040029Z - 040200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439, 440
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds continues mainly across
    the Delmarva vicinity into New Jersey, as well as central Virginia,
    but the overall severe potential should gradually diminish into late
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple corridors of strong/severe thunderstorms are
    ongoing as 0020z/820pm EDT across the Delmarva into far southeast
    Pennsylvania toward southwest New Jersey, but is highlighted by an
    HP supercell/bowing structure across across southern Delaware where
    a heightened potential for damaging winds exists in the short term
    before moving offshore. A severe risk, mainly damaging winds, may
    continue with these clusters across far northeast Maryland/far
    southeast Pennsylvania moving into northern Delaware and New Jersey.
    Farther south, a recent uptick of convection has occurred near/east
    of the Blue Ridge in south-central Virginia. While some severe risk
    will exist with this cluster over the next hour or so, it should
    eventually encounter previously rain-cooled air. Current thinking is
    that ongoing Watches across the region will probably be able to
    expire at (or before) scheduled 02z expiration.

    ..Guyer.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zZLVk3D3-cqQXOC1QtpAf5cAGZWBFdRFh6MvSZNir0hLFyy-BBAkZ5LeVahg5dJ9uIl-LuH7= n9tTQowNFirmGjTpFo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 40227527 40017404 39407386 38417494 37107757 37377940
    38977694 40227527=20


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