• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1411

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 07, 2022 21:37:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 072136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072136=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-072330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0436 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072136Z - 072330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will be capable of severe winds, and perhaps
    sporadic hail, through the evening hours. However, storm longevity
    is expected to be limited, which should negate the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters are now apparent moving
    off the higher terrain of the central Rockies and Black Hills from
    northeast CO into southwest SD. Wind gusts over 40 mph and half-inch
    hail have been reported within the past hour with some of this
    activity, and strong wind gusts are possible as these storms
    continue to meander via outflow-driven propagation through an air
    mass with low-level lapse rates between 8.5 to 9.5 C/km (per recent
    RAP analyses). Although instability and effective shear are limited
    in proximity to the terrain features, as storms migrate
    east/southeast they may encounter richer low-level moisture
    supportive of deeper parcel trajectories and slightly stronger
    effective bulk shear (possibly up to 25 knots) that may encourage
    some storm organization. However, confidence in this scenario
    remains low; isolated severe wind gusts and sporadic hail appears to
    be the most likely scenario through the evening hours. As such,
    watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NLMby16Pp0Xi8SSIye-DsWceudmef0wW8GIUn04ROPckvc6r52Z3QyzU-8dPDaPYG5P-AiUv= y7gkE7ZB0GfBrMiHfk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39480432 40490424 40970428 41470475 42520471 43250449
    43610412 43850371 43750325 43340262 42540229 41330199
    40310199 39510222 39220254 38970298 38950346 39020407
    39480432=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 03, 2023 20:50:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 032049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032049=20 NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-032245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...Portion of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...440...

    Valid 032049Z - 032245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439, 440
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds will continue to be possible across much of
    the Mid-Atlantic the remainder of this afternoon. There remains some
    potential for convection within the northern Blue Ridge to intensify
    as it moves east.

    DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within the Mid-Atlantic region
    have been in the Virginia Beach, VA vicinity into northeast North
    Carolina. The organized cluster of storms there have produced wind
    damage reports. This activity may move offshore in the next 1-2
    hours. Convection has been more isolated in central Virginia, but
    MRMS radar has shown strong cores with some of these storms as they
    move eastward. The current activity will continue to pose a threat
    of damaging winds given the strong surface heating and steep
    low-level lapse rates.

    Earlier cloud cover has hindered convective development along
    northern portions of the Blue Ridge. As this cloud cover has
    dissipated, cumulus has become deeper in far northern
    Virginia/central Maryland. The moist airmass downstream will
    continue to destabilize over the next couple of hours. As such,
    eastern portions of Maryland into southern New Jersey should
    eventually get impacted by intensifying storms from the northern
    Blue Ridge along with storms moving in from central Virginia.

    ..Wendt.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rH2Sgj3xouy4Fnb7OWfxiHuNoyznaJNmAbaXss4_Xegvq3pEAoiIx_kpRXSZn4cmSWZL0E-H= kdTDHN-hYYMW8s-UMo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37107825 37227857 37707862 38467850 38977832 39307816
    39707784 40167727 40447648 40337446 39697411 38517497
    36757571 35997573 35547603 35567659 35937686 36687704
    37037725 37137758 37107825=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)