ACUS11 KWNS 071909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071908=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-072215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...southwestern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071908Z - 072215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying scattered thunderstorms developing within the
next few hours may begin to consolidate with increasing potential to
produce strong surface gusts by 4-6 PM MDT. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...An area of persistent convective development, generally
rooted within weak large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, has been gradually spreading
east-northeastward across southwestern Montana and adjacent portions
of the northern Rockies. Additional deepening convective
development is ongoing associated with areas of orographically
forced lift, as latest objective analysis indicates considerable
lingering inhibition for a gradually destabilizing boundary-layer.=20
However, with continued boundary-layer warming in response to
insolation, further erosion of inhibition may allow for intensifying boundary-layer based convection and increasing thunderstorm activity
within the next couple of hours.

In the presence of steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates,
mixed-layer CAPE around 1000+ J/kg, and modest deep-layer shear
beneath 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, initial
storms may become capable of producing marginally severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts. By 22-00Z, various model output has
been suggestive that convection and associated cold pools may begin
to consolidate into a better organized convective system with
potential to produce increasingly widespread strong surface gusts,
as it propagates northeast and east of the higher terrain of
southwest Montana.

..Kerr/Grams.. 07/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5LJY2Sx_JCx1r42rzbB6i3VFyh8UWXf0OGfUYS63PJ6NwxWrFtB0Li13Y9VOyOr8US8MI0EM= ICV5JmsbvRW5CK5j9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46601482 47241368 47591131 45420932 44841269 45541471
46601482=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 032048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032048=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern NE...southeastern
SD...southwestern MN...and northwestern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032048Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the next few
hours. Local wind gusts and small hail are possible. Watch issuance
is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have developed along a cold front
draped from south-central MN west-southwestward along the SD/NE
border. The front continues to slowly sag southward, with the
environment along and ahead of it generally characterized by MLCAPE
around 2000+ J/kg and effective shear around 15 kts. Current VAD and
short-term forecast profiles depict modest low-level shear with
little shear above the boundary layer. While the primary belt of
mid-level flow resides farther north, sufficient boundary-layer
mixing should support continued updraft development and maturation
through the afternoon. Multicell/pulse evolution is expected given
the overall meager kinematic environment. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and relatively high cloud bases might support local gusty
winds and small hail prior to a general weakening trend closer to
sunset.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6mvUzklHkeQdtvKxHb3dbbKfUY73DnYv2q_FE2dYK51uX6li7O-zOi_6nlfWoxF4x8tK0VvWh= osTt36s4IkgMZqXavQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 44139702 44389631 44779569 44809496 44429447 43929421
43469433 43059485 42639599 42379755 42179863 42099942
42319997 42910045 43560027 43849946 43919818 44139702=20


=3D =3D =3D
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