• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 06, 2022 22:33:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 062232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062232=20
    COZ000-070030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

    Valid 062232Z - 070030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 444. Large hail and severe gusts remain the primary threat
    with the more intense storms through the remainder of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and supercells persist across the
    Colorado Front Range, with a history of marginal (1 inch) hail
    associated with a few of the storms. 22Z mesoanalysis shows 9+ C/km
    low-level lapse rates preceding the ongoing storms, contributing to
    over 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE amid modest (i.e. 30 kts) of effective bulk
    shear. Given the modest CAPE/shear parameter space, the stronger,
    sustained storms may support a severe hail/gust threat through the
    evening hours. Given the backed low-level winds and the likely
    presence of several small-scale boundaries across the Colorado Front
    Range, a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Em8A7d6zrQaTCeFVCQja1yM_-z28Y2J35X_kAuz2FG0zYDlk7XLTAx7CdG7_Ar1DLQ2j-MEF= JcJQRey4c3DIEJmBaU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38700473 39420492 40550469 40890431 40970391 40980279
    40820230 40290213 39630217 39050228 38710241 38480273
    38480402 38700473=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 03, 2023 19:17:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 031917
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031917=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-032115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...parts of far northeastern NV...southeastern
    ID...northern UT...southwestern WY...and far northwestern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031917Z - 032115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts are possible this afternoon
    across parts of far northeastern Nevada, southeastern Idaho,
    northern Utah, southwestern Wyoming, and far northwestern Colorado.
    A watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Terrain-forced convective development is underway this
    afternoon, with several clusters of storms ongoing across northern
    Utah. Short-term RAP forecast profiles and a recent ACARS profile
    from Salt Lake City show a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with an
    inverted-V thermodynamic profile and relatively weak deep-layer
    shear. Given the large DCAPE, strongly negatively buoyant outflow is
    expected, producing a few downbursts with strong to severe wind
    gusts. Additional convective development is possible with deepening
    cumulus on visible satellite imagery across far northeastern Nevada,
    which would also pose a damaging wind threat. Storms should wane
    with loss of diurnal heating this evening.

    ..Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9dwKlFV_woZttWp5eYXamCmnwixyQ5mPJnkUEhnFGdlGLQJd1KspuJBAzRWa_jpNraAyi6lNj= QHUdcKIOqbzPEE0vaM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...LKN...

    LAT...LON 39601213 39841313 40261373 40601414 41541445 42171415
    42501378 42821308 42851113 42601012 41740873 41210862
    40600876 40120892 39760980 39651070 39681077 39601213=20


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