ACUS11 KWNS 062048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062047=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northern/eastern Kentucky into western
West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...443...

Valid 062047Z - 062245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442, 443
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind damage potential will continue this afternoon.
Convection in northern West Virginia and parts of eastern Kentucky
have been impacted by convection earlier today. Areas away from
convective outflow will see the greatest risk with perhaps a locally
higher risk with a mesovortex moving into West Virginia.

DISCUSSION...The linear segment of storms that moved through
southwestern Ohio has moved into far southern Ohio to near the West
Virginia border. Regional radar is only sampling winds at several
thousand feet currently, but longer loops suggest at least a weak
mesovortex is present. Tree and power line damage has recently been
report with this feature. Farther southwest, temperatures are much
warmer (mid/upper 90s F) and storms along the surface boundary
continue to propagate into this unstable airmass. Going forward, the
greatest potential for wind damage will exist where the airmass has
been undisturbed by previous convection. This would include parts of
central into east-central Kentucky and southwestern/southern West
Virginia.

..Wendt.. 07/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9dkwNgg-Tr28X1z-f1OxTXGSQg4B12s_fjll7D5rz7H8UKhlKMF_UUzXk0LzI7Kb-5FRU--v0= bkb6048aR3lknao_Ic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 37498589 37658618 37918584 38278483 38868339 38818253
38298089 38068084 37638130 37618163 38028247 37888329
37638385 37548490 37498589=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 031742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031742=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031742Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop in a hot, moist environment.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible.
One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely for much of the
Mid-Atlantic in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon satellite imagery shows developing
cumulus along the Appalachians. Some stable billow clouds remain in central/northern Virginia, but they have shown a dissipating trend
over the last hour. Farther south, a weak MCV is slowly moving east
in central North Carolina. Some convection has recently developed
along the northeastern flank of this feature where temperatures are
in the low 90s F. Due to modest rising mid-level heights, it seems
that convection may still take some time to mature, with the
MCV-related storms potentially being an exception. Modest mid-level
winds remaining across the region (diminishing with southward
extent) will lead to 30-35 kts of effective shear. Strong surface
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will support
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (greater with southward extent). Scattered
thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours with the
potential for strong/severe wind gusts. Large hail is possible with
supercell structures, but will be more isolated in nature. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region in
the next 1-2 hours.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_UvGK0X5RwVg9phPUB_7K8sHJ0r1Uy-4yX4ORQ-5g4OpKLCqiQ8un7WLfN49EskfC0orKVRu-= QhVGKy85K9O4G3L6uU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 39647637 38667579 36887655 36177756 36037814 36417890
36807946 37057945 38097861 39087782 39477729 39647637=20


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