ACUS11 KWNS 061719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061719=20
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...far
southwest Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061719Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storm development is expected across eastern
Kentucky into eastern Tennessee. A few damaging downbursts will be
possible. A watch is not currently expected for this regime.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in eastern Kentucky as a
high-PWAT airmass has destabilized. Though MLCAPE is 2500-3500 J/kg,
shear is quite weak as noted on the KJKL and KMRX VAD. Storms will
likely develop and become briefly intense. Localized damaging
downbursts will be the primary concern with this activity. There is
some potential for storms to move into the region from the northwest
later this afternoon. However, the track of the MCV is such that
shear is not expected to improve today. A watch is not expected for
these generally disorganized storms.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Agpwa6f72k6akIoR7KPbLBFwTOZ4Big5s0F6KgUiqcfNwUEHzd3Y7CUQKUhuxU73ZIzXZach= pA5eJSWg16xKbt4vQM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36778240 36038324 35698434 36118539 36578552 36758537
37348485 37788445 38258388 38218360 38078315 37228214
36778240=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 022342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022342=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of NJ...far southeastern PA...DE...and
eastern MD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435...

Valid 022342Z - 030115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
435 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows several
discrete/semi-discrete thunderstorms with periodic/transient
midlevel rotation tracking eastward across far southeastern PA and
MD this evening. Ahead of this activity, rich boundary-layer
moisture (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) should continue to yield
surface-based inflow for these storms as they progress eastward
during the next few hours. Locally damaging gusts are the primary
concern, though a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given
the ongoing discrete mode and at least modest low-level hodograph
curvature (per DIX/DOX VWP data). Over eastern MD and DE, upper
80s/lower 90s temperatures amid upper 70s dewpoints are contributing
to strong surface-based instability. This, combined with slightly
stronger deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective shear) could
favor an increased risk of damaging winds this evening.

..Weinman.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_twjxJYkhwZthuiLp3DQFJ_M0L0Dgkup0O_Yj0Z3-j89TZgrYz6Bq_yiFotDnGfnrD2wJ0DBp= ZrIp_DVk9neZyfpTTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 39147641 40257558 40757506 40787477 40587426 40257418
39197483 38457523 38247561 38297607 38397631 38687646
39147641=20


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