• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1394

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 06, 2022 04:58:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 060458
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060458=20
    OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-060700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1394
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...Northern Illinois...Northern Indiana and
    West-central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

    Valid 060458Z - 060700Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of
    northern Illinois and in west-central Ohio, over the next couple of
    hours. A marginal severe threat may also develop in parts of
    northern Indiana. Due to the marginal nature of the threat, WW 440
    will allowed to expire at 05Z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a strong line segment
    in northern Illinois, with other thunderstorms ongoing from northern
    Indiana to central Ohio. The storms are located along the northern
    edge of a moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE
    across this area in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. The line of storms
    in northern Illinois will likely continue to move eastward, and be
    associated with a marginal wind-damage threat. Further to the
    east-southeast, the moderate instability combined with adequate
    deep-layer shear, may support an marginal wind-damage threat. The
    potential for strong wind gusts may be greatest across western and
    central Ohio, where surface-based thunderstorms are already ongoing.

    ..Broyles.. 07/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9YTD-yG9Jil3MXsshbjg50LJ6pK96m3Mg80XfQfqdZJEXpCr03jF3m9wxa1dpSDA3jN4FjZj9= k9mLBGxkteqZ_wATnk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41708600 42138846 42108915 41968959 41708976 41328949
    40828737 40368589 39828457 39538362 39558298 39728282
    40118279 40538314 41188454 41708600=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 22:56:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 022256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022255=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-030100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1394
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern ND and far northwestern MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022255Z - 030100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe-storm risk will increase during the next
    few hours. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MBX shows an isolated
    thunderstorm evolving eastward along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface
    boundary/wind shift this afternoon. Within the pre-convective
    environment, modified RAP forecast soundings indicate strong
    surface-based instability driven by a moist/well-mixed boundary
    layer (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep lapse rates in the
    850-500-mb layer. While deep-layer flow/shear is not overly strong,
    some increase in midlevel westerly flow is expected ahead of an
    approaching midlevel jet streak currently crossing parts of SK
    Canada into early evening. As a result, around 25 kt of effective
    shear and the aforementioned strong instability could favor a couple
    loosely organized thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail
    and locally damaging gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to
    remain too isolated/marginal for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8vaBzrELeCeYFiBrXBQl04F1kLEIbeyNuxrUr55qVxZ3jQGKphO17eZEAFjQNlUM6uoqBXTo= l-whpfQsOkptTGxLTU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48289955 48489981 48819986 49049985 49089951 49089834
    49059699 48899679 48519680 48169723 48109786 48139881
    48289955=20


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