ACUS11 KWNS 060325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060324=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...parts of northern into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

Valid 060324Z - 060500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts remain possible for the next
couple of hours across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440.

DISCUSSION...An MCS with a recent history of estimated strong to
severe gusts continues to progress eastward across the remainder of
eastern Iowa and is expected to traverse northern into central
Illinois over the next few hours. While appreciable instability
remains (i.e. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), MLCINH is increasing given
nocturnal cooling ahead of the MCS, with surface temperatures
quickly dropping into the lower 80s F. Temperatures are in the lower
70s F behind the MCS leading line, suggesting a -10 to -15 F cold
pool continues to drive the MCS. Given the strength of the cold
pool, isolated damaging gusts remain a concern across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 440 for at least a couple more hours. A local
extension in area/time of the watch across northeast IL may be
necessary.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-QqXwVy1qzZK7pq3ds1fTGdd_cKr24gJJudTyv58HNEA8Va79DYChuNDpHpEoUBNx3yu_xE5x= y6te4e1s-1dT6ypMx4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42539120 42728962 42538763 42058678 41408688 41148797
41108935 41099016 41199079 41419129 42539120=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 022155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022154=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-022330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...western and central
NC...northwestern SC...and far southwestern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022154Z - 022330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue to increase through the
early evening, and a watch may be needed for parts of the area
within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated boundary-layer cumulus field over parts of western NC this
afternoon -- where a warm and moist air mass is in place (lower 90s temperatures and lower 70s dewpoints). Current thinking is that
continued diurnal destabilization along with orographic ascent will
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through the early
evening. The MRX VWP sampled a west-southwesterly, unidirectional
wind profile with around 30-40 kt of effective shear. This wind
profile, coupled with the destabilizing air mass, should support a
mix of organized multicells and transient supercells capable of wind
damage and marginally severe hail. A watch may be needed within the
hour for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5oeAxROCEK57DIqsGp0rAIG8sd-w0i1mbCCOqkOg_MlGFCxjHYlVlS3fvMfwDsEMrY2GoTx9U= Y6Dj05uSzRnP4Zum1Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 36758117 36548054 36208000 35817996 35398008 35078026
34828077 34528191 34528280 34558322 34768364 35128386
35648367 36418327 36698305 36818267 36848223 36818168
36758117=20


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