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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1389

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 23:47:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 052347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052347=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-060145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1389
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0647 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Montana...Western North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

    Valid 052347Z - 060145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to
    continue across severe thunderstorm watch 439 over the next few
    hours. The severe threat could affect areas just to the east of the
    watch, where watch issuance may be needed later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high resolution radar from Glasgow shows a
    cluster of strong thunderstorms across east-central Montana. This
    cluster is located on the northern edge of a corridor of
    instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg
    range. The cluster is being supported by a shortwave trough,
    currently evident on water vapor imagery over west-central Montana.
    As the trough moves eastward, convective coverage is expected to
    increase across eastern Montana. The instability combined with 45 to
    55 knots of deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be
    favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will
    also be possible with the stronger downdrafts. Convection is
    forecast to develop across far eastern Montana within a few hours,
    an could affect far western North Dakota. As cell coverage increases
    later this evening, the area east of WW 439 will be monitored for
    possible watch issuance.

    ..Broyles.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9g7r9mlTLgzv4naBeDzLvf1xUA5uSgYvmtsta7GKfMkXXmT35aCeqTXLX3iQAaM7TCeUpZ6RV= B0auijS7InUGnHKWmQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 47810767 46220775 45520740 45290675 45250579 45360493
    45710410 46350370 47350372 48260388 48700449 48830531
    48840622 48570731 47810767=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 19:42:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 021942
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021942=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1389
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...southeast MO vicinity into western and Middle TN
    and western into central KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...431...

    Valid 021942Z - 022145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430, 431
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
    next couple of hours across parts of western/central Kentucky into
    western and Middle Tennessee. Damaging wind risk continues across WW
    430 and 431.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing between two main
    clusters of storms (one along the Ohio River to the MO/AR border to
    the north, and the other across MS/AL to the south). In addition to
    new development, ongoing thunderstorm clusters are expected to move
    into parts of western/south-central KY and western/Middle TN with
    time. Moderate instability and favorable shear amid a very moist
    airmass will continue to support strong/damaging wind potential the
    remainder of the afternoon into early evening.

    Deepening cumulus are evident over eastern portions of the
    Louisville forecast area (east-central KY). Depending on convective
    trends across this area, a downstream watch may be needed across
    parts of eastern KY by around 21-22z.

    ..Leitman.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SvZNftM-_-au2yY2bAw1A045Lz4QNuQk_YOZwhgrT9wS3IGVJxEItcyBXcWq6ZRUeEzKdzn1= BF0TBYtThVGEuX_0Z4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 34998997 35028843 35158739 35448664 36038529 36578425
    37448366 37548361 37918364 38118383 37748610 37448832
    36858928 36268981 35869016 35389031 34998997=20


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