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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1387

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 23:30:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 052330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052329=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0629 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northeast Iowa into far southern
    Wisconsin and extreme northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

    Valid 052329Z - 060100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 440, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threat.
    Damaging winds are expected to become the main concern later this
    evening with the approach of a strong bow-echo MCS.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered multicellular/supercell structures have
    developed along the northern periphery of a baroclinic zone,
    characterized by extreme instability. So far, mainly marginal severe
    hail has been reported with these storms. Nonetheless, the very
    strong buoyancy available to these storms is driven by mid to upper
    70s F dewpoints overspread by steep tropospheric lapse rates. As
    such, damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores in
    addition to large hail. In addition, a derecho-producing MCS is in
    progress across central IA and is poised to enter Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 440 in the next few hours. While it is unclear
    how robust the derecho-MCS will be relative to its current/earlier
    state, the remaining strong buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer
    should support an organized severe wind threat this evening.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!71W_OxvYAtsdNKl3OEAS5Fh6r4zb0hh1nyI4S8PU-AiD_68uP4dOgiDQUr0-9rywYF5dmVvyX= hJVLDRpKmVHVeecEsw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43499269 43589109 43298940 42818842 42128754 41618751
    41388800 41508881 41768983 42149076 42439142 42809211
    42959248 43499269=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 19:09:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 021909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021908=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-022045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...far northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA and
    west-central MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021908Z - 022045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few microbursts producing strong gusts between 40-60 mph
    are possible through the remainder of the afternoon from far
    northeast Texas into southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and
    west-central Mississippi.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and
    shift east/northeast through the afternoon. This activity is
    occurring within moderate to strong instability, supported by
    surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s. However, vertical shear is
    forecast to remain weak across the region, with only around 20-25 kt
    effective shear magnitudes evident in objective analysis and region
    VWP data. Nevertheless, very steep low-level lapse rates and PW
    values approaching 2 inches may support sporadic microbursts with
    wind speeds around 40-60 mph possible. The overall threat is
    expected to remain limited given lack of strong shear and only
    modest large-scale ascent and a severe thunderstorm watch is not
    expected.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6S6cRN37rVq5fTLs1dRjNO3afh3IHrfyBhg3U9GRmeEDlq5hDzl7tbl8tWDQCx9tO3DGJGlL= N5ClY0I_IbHHP-u_hc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32689326 33029451 33239459 33849428 34669314 34899198
    34759111 34149055 33639001 33289006 32679064 32359115
    32689326=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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