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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1386

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 22:09:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 052209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052209=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-052315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1386
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0509 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...far southern Minnesota into central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...438...

    Valid 052209Z - 052315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437, 438
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A derecho is expected to maintain some structure while
    traversing the MN/IA border for the next couple of hours, with
    severe winds still a concern. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a
    tornado also remain possible with storms preceding the derecho.

    DISCUSSION...A derecho-producing MCS, with a considerable history of
    producing significant severe winds, continues to progress along the
    IA/MN border. This MCS has a well-defined mesovortex along the
    northern periphery of a bow echo, where severe winds (some
    significant) continue to be reported. It is uncertain how long the
    MCS will maintain a classic bow-echo structure since the bow is
    beginning to interact with preceding storms. Though synoptic forcing
    remains quite weak, a corridor of extreme buoyancy resides ahead of
    the MCS, overspread by 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear, with the
    bulk shear vectors aligned roughly normal to the MCS bow. Current
    FSD radar shows very strong outbound velocity signatures with the
    bow, so damaging gusts (perhaps some significant) remain possible
    over the next 1-3 hours. Even if the derecho-MCS structure is
    disrupted by the preceding convection, the current CAPE/shear
    parameter space supports continued severe potential with any mature
    storms through the afternoon.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fZWHG3KB6HKsJUkJTi0k2Nh6uQDx4V-OLi3sLvK378m03IBLWQGzE-pObC5iwxVT0zSRkgZ3= yfpmd2Wb5NXiaiYAZ8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42229674 42659609 43079558 43379540 43709519 43969457
    44049349 43879256 43399156 43159142 42849136 42489157
    42149201 41879274 41829410 41789498 41789584 42229674=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 02, 2023 18:11:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 021811
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021811=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1386
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0111 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...southeast CO...northeast NM...western portions of
    the OK/TX Panhandles and extreme southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 021811Z - 022045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along higher terrain will shift east/southeast through early evening. Sporadic strong gusts and
    isolated hail are possible with this activity. If an organized
    cluster can develop and be sustained into the High Plains, a watch
    may be needed later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has developed early this afternoon along the
    higher terrain of central NM into south-central CO. Some minor
    inhibition is still evident in objective analysis fields, but
    continued heating and modest ascent should erode inhibition over the
    next hour. As storms shift east off of higher terrain and into the
    adjacent High Plains, potential for isolated severe gusts and a few
    instances of hail are possible. Modest instability (around 1000-1500
    J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-25 kt effective shear will be sufficient for
    transient cell organization. Very steep low-level lapse rates will
    support strong outflow, and some potential exists for clustering.
    Storms could develop into a forward propagating cluster via mergers
    and consolidating outflows. If this occurs, some increased risk of a
    swatch of severe gusts will be possible across parts of northeast NM
    into the OK/TX Panhandles. Depending on trends, a severe
    thunderstorm watch could become necessary later this afternoon, but
    this remains uncertain.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6cOLrNNkvU1tZNOkJ5HPBJtlov2ilPddzs3tFhBarVlXBM_GUxBEtNxvlCN3nfnmhu1uUKTKz= TylDOrbBRc5fQcj0Og$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35430142 34840176 34360251 34100325 34080391 34300445
    35390540 35900543 36740525 37170476 37580352 37830277
    37790225 37450188 36580144 36090129 35690128 35430142=20


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