ACUS11 KWNS 052138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052137=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Wyoming...South Dakota...Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052137Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop early
this evening across parts of northern Wyoming, southwest South
Dakota and northwest Nebraska. Large hail and wind damage will be
the primary threats. Watch issuance could be needed across parts of
the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
ridge in the northern Plains with southwest mid-level flow
throughout the West. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
from western Montana into Wyoming. At the surface, an
northwest-to-southeast oriented outflow boundary is analyzed across
northern and eastern Wyoming. MLCAPE near this outflow boundary is
estimated to be in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range by the RAP. Forecast
soundings across northern and eastern Wyoming this evening have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, which should be favorable for
severe storms. Isolated supercells will have a large hail threat.
Wind damage may also occur with the stronger downdrafts. The most
favorable corridor for severe should from far eastern South Dakota
into far northwest Nebraska, where instability is currently the
strongest.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9i3k3QrK7c6P-gsQ52sDH-1RAX9J-zbLIV5Loi2Pvrgsqg1UkqnD5dzop7mB6_vJ8ODM-WVrU= xxMx2FznMd72ZtMhTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 41550166 41450205 41470277 41630339 41970396 42420473
42850538 43370648 43660724 43960783 44350811 44610789
44750710 44780634 44620523 44110294 43340095 42730036
42030053 41550166=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 052142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052141 COR
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Wyoming...South Dakota...Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052141Z - 052230Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop early
this evening across parts of northern Wyoming, southwest South
Dakota and northwest Nebraska. Large hail and wind damage will be
the primary threats. Watch issuance could be needed across parts of
the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
ridge in the northern Plains with southwest mid-level flow
throughout the West. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
from western Montana into Wyoming. At the surface, an
northwest-to-southeast oriented outflow boundary is analyzed across
northern and eastern Wyoming. MLCAPE near this outflow boundary is
estimated to be in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range by the RAP. Forecast
soundings across northern and eastern Wyoming this evening have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, which should be favorable for
severe storms. Isolated supercells will have a large hail threat.
Wind damage may also occur with the stronger downdrafts. The most
favorable corridor for severe should from far far eastern Wyoming
into far northwest Nebraska, where instability is currently the
strongest.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cNwYNQNXxWhvxl0BIIjU4C8rbuhyLu3EwsY4L-dTJvxZzX1AekVSwwnbmtBMMMfzpytg2D7s= XCQikwsYuPCr79redU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 41550166 41450205 41470277 41630339 41970396 42420473
42850538 43370648 43660724 43960783 44350811 44610789
44750710 44780634 44620523 44110294 43340095 42730036
42030053 41550166=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 021657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021656=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeast MO...southern
IL...southern/central IN...southwest OH...western/central KY and
northern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 021656Z - 021900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to increase over
the next couple of hours. Damaging gusts and hail will be possible
with this activity into early evening. One or more severe
thunderstorm watches will be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies from the MS/OH River confluence
through much of the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity has allow
temperatures to warm into the 80s to near 90 F. This has mostly
eroded surface-based inhibition early at midday, and some growth
within the broad cumulus field is occurring. Surface dewpoints in
the 70s amid modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE
values around 1000-2500 J/kg, with some additional destabilization
expected with continued heating. The region will remain within a
broad area of 35-45 kt midlevel west/southwesterly flow ahead of a
modest shortwave trough now ejecting across MO/IL. Organized
bands/clusters of storms are expected to increase through early
afternoon and spread east/northeast into early evening. Steep
low-level lapse rates/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, and PW values
near 1.75 inches will support scattered strong/damaging gusts.
Additionally, modest midlevel lapse rates and elongated forecast
hodographs amid 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes suggests
isolated large hail also will be possible. One or more severe
thunderstorm watches will likely be need for the region by 19z.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56KAGlDz5RCQsDogtiVomJayXfj-PRsoDJzi8dnM72LTBJGf-_YtzEoc1KsEC81ZmoNMhfiSm= y8Ig8wmGcH6Aicpg6A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
MEG...

LAT...LON 38708756 39708610 39908527 39908468 39718429 39498406
38908379 38008376 37168393 36658416 36428446 36208505
35788765 35868873 36148975 36459005 36688988 38708756=20


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