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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1381

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 19:45:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 051945
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051944=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-052145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...southeastern South Dakota into northeastern
    Iowa...adjacent southern Minnesota...northeastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...437...

    Valid 051944Z - 052145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436, 437
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strongest storms appear likely to overspread the Sioux
    Falls SD area into the Spencer and Storm Lake IA vicinities through
    5-6 PM CDT, accompanied by locally intense gusts up to 60-80 kts,
    and perhaps wind driven hail.

    DISCUSSION...Intense convection continues, with further cooling of
    coldest cloud tops, accompanied by a narrow band of very heavy rain,
    hail and frequent lightning flash rates. Near the northern flank of
    this band, a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation has become
    a bit better defined, with strengthening rear inflow (up to 70-80
    kt) to its southwest through south. This appears aligned with a
    narrow corridor of large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg,
    which seems likely to maintain the most intense convection for the
    next several hours. This likely will include areas across/east of
    Sioux Falls SD into the Storm Lake/Spencer IA vicinity by 22-23Z,
    where wind driven hail may contribute to potential damage.

    ..Kerr.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VseyfDJRZwWWDm2E4ycYLkPgZsnCU5pyqbvIbJpnKlo2swqstm-YFA5ryYLGLxJHFp4hVntS= gIcuyWL-NLPdIEU06Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43859725 43789564 43649420 42669475 42679575 43069747
    43479722 43859725=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 23:31:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 012330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012330=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-020200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0630 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central KS and central MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 012330Z - 020200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk may increase during the next few
    hours. Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are the main
    concern.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate a confluence zone
    extending from east-central KS into central MO this afternoon --
    where increasingly agitated cumulus and isolated storm development
    is underway. Continued diurnal destabilization of a moist boundary
    layer (middle 60s dewpoints) in the confluence zone should support a
    gradual uptick in storm coverage during the next few hours. While
    deep-layer shear is not particularly strong, a unidirectional wind
    profile with around 30 kt of midlevel flow (sampled by the EAX VWP)
    could promote brief updraft organization. Initially, discrete/
    semi-discrete storms could favor marginally severe hail and locally
    damaging gusts. With time, deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel
    to the confluence zone along with storm splits/mergers could yield a
    couple clusters capable of severe winds. Current thinking is that
    any severe risk may remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7GfESYEBg-4iMmuooD18H9aE6Gvv0ZdOAzsKdUROE8xHAbC9m1T10NarL97s-yQCWfxPso14k= nYIdgPtTdgJg16C53Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37679526 37839552 38119564 38469555 38559530 38779443
    38949373 39049330 39179291 39319253 39239223 38899199
    38629195 38409209 38229230 37989281 37689390 37619472
    37679526=20


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