ACUS11 KWNS 051921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051920=20
MTZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...central into northeastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051920Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The development of a couple of supercells posing a risk
for severe hail and locally strong wind gusts appears possible in a
corridor northeast of Lewistown into areas west of Glasgow by 4-6 PM
MDT. Trends are being monitored, but it is not clear that a severe
weather watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Low amplitude mid-level troughing is in the process of
progressing across and northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S.
Rockies, with an associated belt 40-50+ kt flow around the 500 mb
level arcing across southwestern through northeastern Montana.=20
Forcing for ascent associated with at least one speed maximum
embedded within this regime may be aiding ongoing deepening
convective development to the west of the Lewistown area. Aided by
easterly inflow of increasingly unstable boundary layer, convection
appears likely to gradually intensify and advect off the higher
terrain during the next few hours.=20=20

As activity develops to the northeast of Lewistown, mixed-layer CAPE
increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg may become supportive of more
substantive intensification, and the evolution of a few supercells
by 22-00Z. This probably will be accompanied by the risk for severe
hail and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 07/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_sbRbqm4TXEJpKPOslL049u4Isvgh375YHME1KzDZ5rZ8BkSMyuv_j0ZqFzsW74c7E_VEZOwS= 0Ta6eN1Bcor-oVptEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47181031 48250818 48440661 47690646 46780914 46621003
47181031=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 012306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012305=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Southern Illinois into southern Indiana and western
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...429...

Valid 012305Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427, 429
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will generally be the primary hazards
across parts of southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A compact linear segment is evident on MRMS radar
imagery in southern Illinois. This feature should continue to move
eastward into southern Indiana. Temperatures to the east have risen
slightly late this afternoon as the airmass has tried to recover in
the wake of earlier day convection. A few isolated supercell
structures have also developed ahead of the line as well. Long
radar/satellite loops showed some potential impact from more stable
air from convection over western/middle Tennessee. Storms appeared
to lose some organization as they interacted with that outflow.
Further, Mount Vernon, IL observed a 37 kt wind gusts with the
strongest inbound winds per KVWX velocity data. Though some
low-level stability may temper the threat for a more organized wind
damage threat, strong to severe gusts will still remain possible
with the most organized storms and where surface temps have remained
in the upper 80s F. A low-end tornado threat will also exist in the
vicinity of Evansville, IN where surface winds remain backed and the
KVWX shows modest low-level hodograph size.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4q0nTHapTvDxV7wK58IRUQbauce8elvlhWx0VYWbOpd8coFBT8a7rThYsG9YzAPD21Yrt_QNs= m_BYkZ7JgjVNPNEMKI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37988700 37878713 37118784 36638887 36598933 36878931
37218915 37568892 38018899 38768885 38998869 39228793
39318603 39278579 39158553 38748540 38358571 38228612
37988700=20


=3D =3D =3D
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