ACUS11 KWNS 051737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051736=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-051930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Virginia into southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051736Z - 051930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce wind damage this afternoon. Storm
coverage, particularly for central/southeast Virginia, may remain
isolated. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible watch
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As the airmass in eastern Virginia and southern
Maryland slowly destabilizes ahead of an MCV centered in
south-central Pennsylvania, a few thunderstorms have intensified
near the Virginia Tidewater. Given the timing of the MCV and
antecedent cloud cover, MLCAPE is only around 1000 J/kg near this
activity. However, effective shear is 40-45 kts. There is a narrow
window for storms to intensify before reaching more stable air near
the coast.

Farther southwest into central Virginia, greater buoyancy exists as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F. Though farther removed
from the MCV wind field, effective shear is still 30-35 kts. It is
possible that storms will develop as outflow to the northwest
reaches this airmass. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.

The need for a watch is uncertain given the limited area that may be
impacted as well as questions regarding storm coverage. Trends will
be monitored.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!79IeF-AXlJ8YG7vEkAW8pEFBgtfleiEBtCcISS6_eTZlv7CDUE3y7H-Fd9-GPeJMm8l-9TxrK= ZvX9oy8AigGziFzOUw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36867784 36727882 36887935 37507944 37687912 38557745
38817705 38837688 38737642 38197624 37497674 36867784=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 012152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012152=20
NCZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central north carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012152Z - 012245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Wind gusts of 40-50 kts will be possible with a compact
bowing segment in central North Carolina. This activity may persist
another 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has developed east of Greensboro
this afternoon. KRAX radar velocity data showed an area of 50 kt
winds within the apex of bow. Earlier this afternoon, near
Burlington, a 40 kt gust was observed along with reported tree
damage. Given the organization of the bow, it may persist another
hour or two despite weak shear and a less favorable downstream
airmass. Local winds gusts of 40-50 kts would be possible.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4TR2CI45Rg4TuBEGVYltvre4cDmWEbRHNZ9g9qrZ16XlJpelxGCAP0aCscFQhcr9t9KvPkwTa= HXVjw6VC7-aSJghcXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 35587952 35647951 35837932 35957914 36047885 35677823
35277799 35007819 34867850 34957909 35177939 35587952=20


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