• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1378

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 17:32:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 051732
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051731=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-051930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1378
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...central through southeastern South Dakota and
    adjacent southwestern Minnesota....northwestern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...

    Valid 051731Z - 051930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized cluster of severe storms appears likely to be maintained, and continue to be accompanied by severe wind gusts and
    hail while approaching the Sioux Falls area through 1-3 PM CDT. A
    new severe weather watch probably will be needed east-southeast of
    WW 436.

    DISCUSSION...Despite considerable lingering inhibition for
    seasonably moist boundary-layer parcels (including surface dew
    points near 70F) within its inflow , forcing for ascent along the
    convectively generated cold pool continues to overcome mid-level
    capping and maintain intense convective development now southeast
    through east of the Pierre vicinity. Beneath very steep lower/mid
    tropospheric lapse rates, CAPE is increasing in excess of 3000 J/kg,
    and strongest convection continues to be accompanied by heavy rain,
    occasional severe hail and frequent lightning flash rates.

    Heavy precipitation loading, and melting/evaporation of
    precipitation within the downdrafts, are aiding downward transfer of
    30-50+ kt rear inflow, and contributing to occasional severe surface
    gusts. With continuing boundary-layer warming and at least some
    further erosion of inhibition near/ahead of activity, this all seems
    likely to be maintained across and north of the Interstate 90
    corridor into the Sioux Falls area by around 20Z.

    ..Kerr.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Y0pBFwlJLEz-uqvoAmI7hmZfAqjcvWtHBWzMLGJtWYywxXw7bBrrS7KjhQtnYRr01hS6h1Iu= p0pzbL27W49X8VHa7M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45049877 44659642 43579646 43049717 43419830 43779928
    44039983 44399903 45049877=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 21:40:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 012139
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012139=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1378
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0439 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas and far southeastern New
    Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012139Z - 012345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
    severe-storm potential this afternoon, and a watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite/radar
    imagery show an outflow boundary draped across parts of southwest TX
    this afternoon, with deepening cumulus and isolated convective
    development along the boundary. Farther west, an organized storm has
    developed over the higher terrain. Diurnal destabilization of a
    moist air mass (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel
    lapse rates are contributing to strong surface-based instability in
    the vicinity of the boundary. While low/mid-level flow is not
    particularly strong, weak low-level east-southeasterlies beneath
    strengthening westerly flow aloft will still yield around 35 kt of
    effective shear -- supportive of organized storms including a few
    supercells. With weak large-scale ascent over the area, an initially discrete/semi-discrete mode will favor large hail, though eventual
    clustering near the outflow boundary should support an increasing
    damaging-wind threat. Currently, it is unclear if storm coverage
    will be sufficient for a watch, though convective trends will be
    monitored.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_73OfgNwCo1zLX8Mzub-3fTCFaQAWjpxzAOUrft87JBGgrR83Le9W9ZQtB96JChz4ak0A07ig= XxX1cjO8ehbk9UkUKM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31090305 31320356 31650388 32020390 32320385 32600373
    32860347 32850316 32710280 32570250 32430210 32340175
    32210131 32090118 31710103 31330096 31010115 30880144
    30880197 30970246 31090305=20


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