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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1376

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 14:15:21
    ACUS11 KWNS 051415
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051414=20
    SDZ000-051545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1376
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0914 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...northern and central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435...

    Valid 051414Z - 051545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An intense cluster of thunderstorms may organize and
    strengthen further through 11 AM-1 PM CDT, with increasing potential
    to produce severe wind gusts while spreading eastward and
    southeastward toward the Aberdeen and Pierre vicinities. A new
    severe weather watch likely will be needed to the east and south of
    WW 435 within the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of intense thunderstorms, including a few
    cells likely still producing severe hail, persists, with a general east-southeastward propagation. Rapid Refresh suggests that
    lower/mid tropospheric warm advection supporting initial activity
    may weaken during the next few hours, but the convection has
    generated a substantive surface cold pool which is advancing
    southward into an increasingly moist and destabilizing
    boundary-layer, along and north of the Interstate 90 corridor.=20
    Although mid-level inhibition beneath the plume of very warm
    elevated mixed-layer air also becomes generally stronger with
    southward extent, lift along the leading edge of the cold pool,
    coupled with erosion of inhibition due to continued surface heating,
    may be strong enough to maintain or increase intense convection.=20

    Given CAPE up to 3000 J/kg in the more moist air, modest deep layer
    westerly (around 20 kt) mean flow appears sufficiently sheared to
    contribute to an increasingly well organized cluster of storms
    accompanied by increasing risk for severe wind gusts, in addition to
    large hail.

    ..Kerr.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_oUMA8isyemEorND5m7i2rQuda1yNze8jzFz46mjUNRdWRzIzNmtmurkSS9NhVWdKBt9TYU-F= 67Qkobx2D1oj8dpq1g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45890289 45870084 45299749 43820003 44980335 45890289=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 19:58:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 011958
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011957=20
    NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-012130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1376
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...parts of Middle and southeast TN...northern AL/GA
    and far western NC

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

    Valid 011957Z - 012130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts will continue the
    next few hours across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428.

    DISCUSSION...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will
    continue to shift east across parts of Middle and southeast TN,
    northern AL/GA and far western NC the next few hours. This activity
    is occurring in a moderately unstable environment characterized by
    weak effective shear. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates,
    high PW, and a corridor of 1000+ J/kg DCAPE exist downstream of
    ongoing convection. Several measured severe gusts have been noted,
    along with wind damage, over the past 1-2 hours. Expect
    sporadic/locally damaging wind potential to persist across eastern
    portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428.

    ..Leitman.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mDLkm4xnZtBMcmMmQNrmDC1w9t59_QdwSJyFo_-Oq8yfKJNVyHPvaMGyCg_1yKMmfl0brqpm= dDGM2Xn3855hHXk8OE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 36478563 35458393 34988357 34658394 34188505 34128615
    34218689 34688715 35668653 36228616 36468586 36478563=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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