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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 05, 2022 08:19:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 050817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050817=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1373
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

    Areas affected...northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

    Valid 050817Z - 051015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk will continue to gradually diminish across WW
    434, with new/downstream watch not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a still-linearly organized band
    of storms moving southeastward across northern Indiana and impinging
    on northwestern Ohio at this time.

    Storms over adjacent/far southeastern Lower Michigan have shown
    noted weakening as they approach northwestern Ohio just west of the
    western shore of Lake Erie -- as expected given the much more stable
    airmass indicated over Ohio.

    Meanwhile to the west/southwest, storms remain more vigorous across
    northern Indiana, but have largely fallen gradually below severe
    levels, with the strongest observed gust from official observing
    networks being 35 kt, over the past hour.

    Western portions of this band of storms show a decidedly anafrontal
    character per radar data -- consistent with storms that are
    occurring in low-level warm advection atop a southwestward-moving
    cold pool.

    Overall, while instability remaining across Indiana is sufficient to
    allow this convective band to persist, risk for severe-level gusts
    continues to become increasingly localized, and to diminish
    gradually with time. Given that risk for severe-caliber hail is
    even more limited, current expectations are that an
    additional/downstream watch will not be required as storms gradually
    begin to spill from the current bounds of WW 434.

    ..Goss.. 07/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Yujyr7yvwfzDtbduf5EvCobUh6RKtVLgEG_5vrPsUYanSHy_VPDPKzuXPggjtUajXxuRx0xe= arrdKD_eRhwfHeUB6Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 41038679 41078616 41308549 41768458 41068453 40618484
    40558627 40848668 41038679=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 17:56:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 011756
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011755=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-012030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1373
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

    Areas affected...western NC...Upstate of SC...far northeast GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011755Z - 012030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts are possible
    this afternoon and wind damage is expected as a result. Large hail
    is possible but on a more isolated basis.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
    field over the Great Smoky Mountains within an area characterized by
    weak to modest west-northwest flow (20-25 kt northwesterly at 4km
    ARL at Greer, SC per the VAD). Surface conditions in western NC
    have warmed into the mid-upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s
    to 70 deg. Slightly richer moisture is located immediately adjacent
    to the higher terrain over the Upstate of SC with lower 70s
    dewpoints in the I-85 corridor. Expecting convective initiation
    over the higher peaks in western NC by 230pm (1830 UTC). Gradual
    storm development is expected through 3-4pm while storms intensify.=20
    Model forecast soundings indicate PW around 1.8 inches amidst
    2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse
    rates will support water-loaded downbursts and at least isolated
    microbursts capable of peak gusts 50-65 mph. The thunderstorm
    activity will slowly move towards the I-85 corridor by late
    afternoon.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lyG0sl1WOKaHrJXC_L9i6MTjfgvuuYe5ACYm9Kf4LfPdT9z6Lo8K1gyzk8kU3CguMNsB6awL= plPYB_hV8j5CY5SPt4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 35458384 35968261 36098189 35758150 35258164 34568277
    34448357 34568399 34798411 35458384=20


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