ACUS11 KWNS 050449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050449=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-050715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...Southwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050449Z - 050715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat is expected to continue
across eastern Montana, and could affect parts of southwest North
Dakota over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance may be
needed to the east of the ongoing watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Glasgow shows a
severe storm in eastern Montana, with other isolated strong storms
further to the west. These cells are located along the northern edge
of an east-to-west axis of instability. The small cluster of storms
is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough in east-central
Montana, evident on water vapor imagery. As this feature moves
eastward, the storms should remain intact moving into southwest
North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings in southwest North Dakota have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots, suggesting that the storms should
remain organized. Although storm rotation will be possible, the
cells may tend to form into short line segments. Wind damage would
be possible along the leading edge of the lines. And hail could
accompany the stronger cores.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6rq9J_TFd8_80p6FdBfdkbhx3YZfeu39ndg2fAUCmQOySos56to0KsoTWeY74SOTE0GXv6Xwb= iSCd75GN9_BBSHhQxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 47060528 46710522 46520492 46400446 46380392 46380303
46400212 46440156 46590097 46960061 47240066 47470113
47500229 47450477 47060528=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 011646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011646=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011646Z - 011815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may produce strong/locally damaging
gusts and hail through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters have developed across the region
early this afternoon amid weakening boundary-layer inhibition.
Surface dewpoints in the 70s amid mid 80s to low 90s temperatures
are resulting in a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional
heating during the afternoon will result in some additional increase
in instability. While moderate to strong instability will reside
over the region, vertical shear is expected to remain modest, with
effective shear magnitudes generally around 20 kt forecast. This
will limit longevity of organized updrafts, though degree of
instability should support at least briefly vigorous thunderstorms.
The lack of stronger midlevel flow and deep-layer shear may preclude
upscale development, but the parameter space should be sufficient
for thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for strong/locally damaging
gusts and perhaps hail with the stronger cores. If a sufficient cold
pool can be generated, potential for a bowing cluster would
increase, but confidence in this scenario is low. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RRBQi62kAAk_LWbctkO27hwExM7zzXraBo13JngzB_TTA1NKDtEDR3rERr9-HGIwxGeSHARb= psAucXYGp4ARfGirNc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36598473 34578555 34428644 34518771 34798813 35478825
36398818 36648792 36668602 36598473=20


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