• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1364

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 23:34:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 042334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042333=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-050130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1364
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0633 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast IA...Southern WI...far northern IL...far
    Southeast MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042333Z - 050130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe risk may increase over the next hour or two
    within a corridor across northeast Iowa and possibly far southeast
    Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and possibly far northern
    Illinois, although a more probable severe risk is expected later
    this evening (after sunset) across parts of the region. The need for
    a Watch is uncertain in the short term, but convective trends are
    being closely monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery reflects some
    congestus/towering cumulus across northeast Iowa (near the Minnesota
    border near/east of Mason City) into southwest Wisconsin. This
    activity is occurring near/either side of a warm front, with
    additional differential heating/outflow-related influences across
    southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois per the earlier convection and
    MCV. The atmosphere is very unstable particularly in vicinity of the
    warm front, with upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across
    northeast/east-central Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin and
    northwest Illinois.

    Some key uncertainties remain regarding the extent/likelihood of
    deeper convection in the short term across the region. This is
    largely owing to post-MCV weak forcing for ascent influences along
    with considerable mid-level warmth with westward-extent into and
    across eastern/northern Iowa where 700 mb temperatures are 12-14C
    (with eastward advection thereof). These factors cast some
    uncertainty on the westward extent of the severe risk and short-term
    overall likelihood of severe across the sub-regional area. Where
    storms do develop, ample instability and strong deep-layer shear
    (effective shear 40+ kt) could support supercells.

    A somewhat higher certainty/probability severe risk is expected
    after sunset especially across southern Wisconsin and potentially
    far northern Illinois. Damaging winds and bouts of large hail with
    any supercells would be the primary concerns, but a tornado risk may
    also exist with surface-rooted storms (especially near the warm
    front) given a further strengthening of low-level shear/SRH this
    evening.

    ..Guyer.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9RSACekvQRDNlypOfpF3lqZ-P8bURCciNAt1AmrpQzR7zdcoCcWWKH1Z73IXVmSCVOdL34YDa= Tftd8m-5wRbHFMCZWQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42779273 43579284 43739190 43879007 43448803 42818787
    42178813 42108953 42419164 42779273=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 00:58:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 010058
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010058=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1364
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern MO/Southern IL and Western/Southern KY to
    Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...425...

    Valid 010058Z - 010230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423, 425
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to pose a severe hail/wind
    risk this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watches 423/425 continue
    until 04z/11pm CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue early this
    evening, extending from far eastern Missouri (north/east of St
    Louis) into southern Illinois, western/southern Kentucky, into
    Middle Tennessee (nearing Nashville) at around sunset. These storms
    are generally scattered along the immediate cool side of an
    effective boundary/strong buoyancy gradient, with the storms
    near/just south of the Kentucky/Middle Tennessee border showing a
    bit more of organizational increase as storms continue to cluster. A
    somewhat more focused damaging wind potential may be evolving within
    this corridor, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425 has recently been
    expanded southward for this scenario. Severe hail/wind otherwise
    remains possible across remaining valid portions of these Watches.

    ..Guyer.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7QFQvMkBkIBmXLWXWBX2z2ERSTPpops69EhZCqXcs4ZDn0-Eg0DtAwmqLsQ47oI2b6bLOx1Tl= eWXcVEEm3HxBKJ0uUk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39209203 39339093 38658913 37648754 36318486 35118699
    36068736 37228898 38249088 38779201 39209203=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)