• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1363

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 23:08:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 042308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042308=20
    NDZ000-050015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1363
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042308Z - 050015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few instances of severe gusts/hail may accompany the
    stronger storms that can develop over the next few hours. The severe
    threat is expected to remain relatively isolated.

    DISCUSSION...A small, embedded 500 mb vortmax is cresting the ridge
    across northwest ND per latest RAP analysis, which is likely
    supporting convective initiation along multiple outflow boundaries
    strewn across the state. Overall storm coverage along these
    boundaries should remain limited given the overall weak upper
    support. Surface temperatures exceeding 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F
    dewpoints, overspread by 7.5 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, are
    contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 22Z mesoanalysis. Stronger
    mid-level flow is also contributing to 40+ kts of effective bulk
    shear, supporting storm organization for any updraft that can become
    sustained. Should a storm mature, transient supercell structures may
    result and would be associated with a large hail/severe wind threat.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8IrJhmZrhwieB7h2qdZhsxS55quSYTiX7witfI6C0AbCga3UbrwoQvDUyqPnd9PTVLbEqccry= l3YBcsxFsNbGyC7JHY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48220365 48620268 48790088 48749957 48579849 48359836
    48079842 47529883 47189946 47050041 46980144 47150234
    47410308 48220365=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 01, 2023 00:40:21
    ACUS11 KWNS 010040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010039=20
    KSZ000-010145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1363
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of north-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

    Valid 010039Z - 010145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for significant gusts up to 75 mph and large
    hail continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 in
    north-central Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster with a history of
    producing significant gusts (as high as 79 mph) is tracking eastward
    at around 40-50 kt in north-central Kansas this evening. As this
    activity continues eastward, 40-50 kt of effective shear
    (characterized by large, clockwise-turning hodographs) and a
    corridor of moderate surface-based instability should support its
    maintenance in the near-term. To the south, a couple left-mover
    supercell structures are also tracking toward the primary supercell
    cluster, and additional upscale growth is possible as these storms
    merge. Given the potential for additional upscale growth, severe
    gusts up to 75 mph is the main concern, though large hail is also
    possible.

    ..Weinman.. 07/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Zd8fC_U37LpQaNHt2e_WVtYRBgeVgFcFd9VJk8XNelS3g1Jd1X8I8BH8D4HDm-xYLOv8ICTJ= c630Ok1n5AGcZLJAKA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38929903 39079933 39319942 39559943 39719930 39829912
    39899870 39889831 39819795 39659778 39309770 39039778
    38929821 38919869 38929903=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)