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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1359

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 20:42:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 042042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042042=20
    SDZ000-WYZ000-042245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1359
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

    Areas affected...The Black Hills vicinity of southwestern South
    Dakota and adjacent portions of Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042042Z - 042245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development is
    possible near the Black Hills vicinity into early evening.=20
    Occasional large hail and a locally strong surface gust or two may
    accompany this activity. It is not clear that a severe weather
    watch is needed, but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates
    associated with a plume of very warm and elevated mixed-layer air, a
    seasonably moist boundary-layer is becoming characterized by CAPE in
    excess of 2000 J/kg with insolation. Isolated thunderstorm activity
    has initiated across the Black Hills vicinity, largely aided by
    forcing for ascent associated with orography. In the presence of
    strongly sheared, but modest (around 20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean
    flow, initial activity may be in the process of advecting off (east
    of) the higher terrain, where much stronger inhibition seems likely
    to contribute to weakening and dissipation. However, attempts at
    subsequent isolated thunderstorm development are already underway to
    the southwest, and this may continue into early evening. One or two
    storms may briefly intensify sufficient to produce large hail and/or
    locally strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!75oIYPRntuBh5IKEkkLVx4cj6loyv41NoygBMDz7rkTM4MA9vrt9W7x6HRpvsgF516eeX0yAX= PRPabbDTx9b3UkGoUE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44390412 44450368 44280311 43610344 43800393 44230418
    44390412=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 30, 2023 21:27:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 302127
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302127=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-302300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1359
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...Northeast Kansas/Northern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 302127Z - 302300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential should steadily increase
    through late afternoon across east-central/northeast Kansas into
    northern Missouri. A Watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows
    deepening/towering cu in vicinity of the roughly WSW/ENE-oriented
    boundary across central/northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Hot temperatures and prevalent low/some middle 70s F surface dewpoints
    are contributing to minimal inhibition with MLCAPE estimated as high
    as 3000-4000 J/kg as per latest mesoanalysis and modifications to
    the 19z KTOP observed sounding. Moderately strong
    west-southwesterlies mid/high-level flow overlies the frontal zone,
    and as such, wind profiles will support some initial supercells
    capable of large hail. The potential for damaging winds are likely
    to increase this evening as cell mergers occur.

    ..Guyer/Hart.. 06/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bLFc-FfeYTCfLwqqH6HyfvvAsJZP36zdTf4apnrE8giPUtzq-GVsZZWRH3nSU2kBXaozxKlF= Np2NcjbXoYoukHQJ6M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39339772 39839565 39829287 39149195 38469227 38679417
    38659593 38219715 38149802 39339772=20


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