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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1357

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 19:23:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 041923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041922=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-042115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041922Z - 042115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasionally strong wind gusts are possible with a linear
    segment near the Wisconsin/Illinois border. The degree of risk is
    conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur ahead of it
    despite influence from thunderstorms farther south in central
    Illinois. A watch is currently not expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A linear segment of thunderstorms has intensified in
    southwestern Wisconsin even with limited instability present. This
    feature is likely aided by forcing from the MCV. A recent 47 kt gust
    in Mineral Point, WI (with reported tree damage) suggest that
    low-level thermodynamics are sufficient to support a few stronger
    gusts. There is a fairly high degree of uncertainty with this
    activity as it is moving into areas of southern Wisconsin and
    northern Illinois that have been impacted by precipitation earlier
    today. The most recent METAR from Rockford, IL shows temperatures
    have cooled from 81 F to 77 F. However, with the very moist
    low-level profile and 30-40 kt winds above the surface due to the
    MCV, an occasional strong gust may occur. Temperatures near the
    WI/IL lakeshores are warmer (low 80s F). If this activity can
    persist and ingest that airmass, wind damage would be modestly
    greater. Given the uncertainties, a watch is not anticipated for
    this activity this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6T2wn_NFKVLADQocF-qYD7s-xktuFhWwN2l092TEYys90WKESJsucXTWyUBVEIi79er7XjkaS= plmAjZGTb7xpIeIGQY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 42629039 42948971 42888845 42618795 42308797 42018886
    41908931 42018975 42519034 42629039=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 30, 2023 19:28:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 301928
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301928=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-302200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 301928Z - 302200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing and gradually intensifying thunderstorm
    development through 4-6 PM CDT may pose some risk for severe hail
    and wind. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be
    needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
    possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly
    shifting into/across the southern Rockies, an influx of moisture
    from the subtropical latitudes is contributing to conditionally
    unstable thermodynamic profiles above a remnant elevated mixed-layer
    across southern/eastern New Mexico into Western Texas. At the same
    time, an area of mid/upper forcing for ascent continues to shift north-northeastward across this region, near the entrance region of
    the strong high-level jet nosing northeast of the southern Rockies
    through the central high plains.

    Beneath this regime, a moist and deepening mixed boundary-layer is
    becoming characterized by moderately large CAPE around 1500 J/kg,
    with mid-level inhibition weakening sufficiently to allow for the
    initiation of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development. This
    is occurring along weak lee surface troughing, which models suggest
    will become the focus for increasing thunderstorm development
    through 21-23Z. Embedded within rather modest (20-25 kt)
    south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow and shear, the environment
    does not appear particularly conducive to well-organized severe
    storm development. However, aided by steep lapse rates, initial
    strengthening storms may pose a risk for severe hail and locally
    strong downbursts, with weaker surface gusts then becoming more
    widespread on consolidating northeastward and eastward advancing
    outflows.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 06/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!935AhjXLmpS9LPCGaqGV6Wgqrx8dBwuA4ujneTsRz0G9KWX5dhwad8FsQAW2HSKKSjNlTKBAM= WM7gD0gQQA_T7tKBcQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34290339 35460195 34560121 32820238 32650362 34290339=20


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