• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1356

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 18:41:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 041841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041840=20
    ILZ000-042045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1356
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central/northeast Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041840Z - 042045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some increase in organization has occurred with storms
    along Interstate 80. The downstream environment should support an
    increase in damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential until
    roughly the Indiana border. No watch is expected for this activity.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues to move east along I-80.
    Recent MRMS 7 km CAPPI data shows updrafts continue to deepen as
    they encounter warmer temperatures in east-central Illinois.
    Dewpoints ahead of the cluster also have increase over the past
    couple of hours to the low 70s F. One particular updraft in Bureau
    County has shown greater organization in the last hour. KDVN
    velocity data has shown at least weak mid-level rotation with this
    storm. Given continued heating of the downstream environment, an
    increase in damaging wind potential (and perhaps marginally severe
    hail) could occur over the next 2-3 hours. Beyond that time,
    activity will likely reach the Indiana border where dewpoints are
    only in the low 60s F. A weakening trend would then be anticipated
    as storms ingest less buoyant air. Given the limited area of impact,
    a watch is not expected for this activity.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Blr-KJU-aEXYaVCUxG-7E34aS8RdvNc3JT6tSSoHsZO7le2b16MOk72Uhah80IEdWkR2zuqe= EJL4rVeFIEfzrIRdYY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40838973 41328993 41538992 41718971 41888917 41808825
    41408768 40958757 40558780 40538844 40678924 40838973=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 30, 2023 18:13:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 301813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301812=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-302015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1356
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western GA into eastern AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301812Z - 302015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts and small hail will be possible this
    afternoon with a southward propagating thunderstorm cluster across
    parts of western Georgia into eastern Alabama.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has gradually increased in
    coverage and intensity early this afternoon. Strong heating has
    allowed low-level inhibition to erode, and dewpoints in the low 70s
    are supporting around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. While moderate
    mid/upper northerly flow persists toward central GA/AL, overall bulk
    effective shear values decrease rapidly with southward extent.
    However, steep low-level lapse rates amid moderate buoyancy may aid
    in sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts as the storm cluster moves
    southward through the afternoon along the instability gradient.
    Given generally weak low-level flow and modest effective shear,
    overall organization of the cluster is not expected to increase
    beyond current trends. A more organized/widespread severe threat is
    expected to remain limited, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not
    currently expected.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 06/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8o24BXVCd9LOSTTbuLUg_OUq-6OqXoRgr29Sm-bW8B1sw47a6eovYxhc4SLmQ4PFb5JHmHEE1= uWpNwsBrYKTqOigYQQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

    LAT...LON 34158412 33538413 33098436 32858462 32808506 32948550
    33298601 33658609 34188582 34278553 34158412=20


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