• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0258

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 15, 2022 10:02:50
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151002=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-151230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and adjacent
    Mississippi coastal areas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151002Z - 151230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will overspread the region,
    including much of the Greater New Orleans area, through 6-9 AM CDT,
    with some potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts and
    perhaps a tornado. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will
    be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
    possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Lift along the leading edge of an east-southeastward
    advancing convectively driven surface cold pool has been maintaining
    modest renewed convective development. This has included embedded thunderstorms, the strongest of which have been inland of the
    Louisiana coast, where the cold pool convection has been merging
    with preceding convection forced by low-level warm advection, along
    a diffuse warm frontal zone near the coast.=20

    There has been, perhaps, a very gradual general increase in
    convective intensity evident over the past few hours, in advance of
    a weak frontal wave, which appears likely to migrate eastward across southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi through 14-16Z. The
    latest Rapid Refresh suggests that there may not be much further
    strengthening of an associated southwesterly low-level jet
    (including speeds of 30-35+ kt around 850 mb), but a gradual
    low-level moistening across southeastern Louisiana coastal areas
    toward the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity may contribute to further
    weak boundary-layer destabilization.=20=20

    It is possible that this could become sufficient to support
    additional, occasional thunderstorm intensification through daybreak
    and beyond. Enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs,
    though generally modest, might become supportive of isolated
    supercell structures accompanied by the risk for a tornado.=20
    Otherwise, locally strong surface gusts possibly approaching severe
    limits probably is the primary hazard.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t7Hl5TdNAIHkFaA_vxaBn4pT8ohgjb3FWgfejGNmjMq4Z1S-HsKkkSFk-IETNYU6FSeGB8s4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30409046 30428884 29998850 29418869 29038948 29039076
    29309115 29809097 30409046=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 08, 2023 03:30:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 080330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080329=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-080500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0929 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northern TX and southern OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080329Z - 080500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few cells capable of producing marginally-severe hail
    have developed across western north Texas. A watch is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A few cells have developed across western north Texas,
    near the location of a stationary front at 850 mb, per mesoanalysis.
    The 00z OUN RAOB indicates these storms are likely elevated, rooted
    around the 850 mb level. The environment is characterized by modest
    buoyancy (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (~65 kts of
    effective bulk shear) with a largely straight hodograph above the
    stable layer. Given this environment, expect a few marginally-severe
    hail reports out of the stronger cells as they translate to the
    east-northeast with time. A watch is not anticipated at this time,
    however trends will be monitored.

    ..Supinie/Thompson.. 03/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7abNBCO-jBrANtN6o-6azVg7jUkxVpsii8f630n-FVhNLEcpQr15OaN88P8oAi3eYBPziQqXm= 9SysKfLSTlsgKvjm2M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33730079 34309912 34559852 34689740 34679696 34499651
    34099620 33779644 33239759 32859928 32750111 32910148
    33250149 33410126 33730079=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 15, 2024 14:45:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 151445
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151445=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0945 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

    Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA...southern MS/AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 151445Z - 151645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of Louisiana
    into southern Mississippi late this morning. Large hail and damaging
    gusts, along with a tornado or two will be possible across the MCD
    area through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed within the
    next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Occasionally strong storms have been ongoing this
    morning across central Alabama across WW 51. This activity will
    persist and local watch extensions may be needed across the
    Birmingham forecast area in the short term to address locally
    damaging gust and hail concerns.=20

    To the south/southwest across LA into southern MS, stronger heating
    is noted with temperatures approaching the mid 70s amid 70-73 F
    dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer
    are already supporting moderate to strong destabilization. Visible
    satellite imagery depicts agitated cumulus along/ahead of the
    southeast-sagging outflow. Furthermore, water vapor imagery
    indicates a compact shortwave trough over east TX. This is expected
    to overspread LA/MS this afternoon, providing large-scale ascent
    across the very moist and unstable boundary-layer. Morning CAMs
    depict increasing storm coverage by midday and this seems reasonable
    given short term trends in observational data this morning. Vertical
    shear will be somewhat marginal initially, but increasing through
    the day. Supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts
    will be the main concern. However, enlarged and favorably curved
    low-level hodographs are noted in forecast soundings, and a couple
    tornadoes will be possible. A new watch will likely be needed for
    portions of LA into parts of southern MS/AL within the next 1-2
    hours.

    ..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BwquUeHXNBn3RvTYyz5Dvq2BLW9KQaF4Z40nwgFzJRQ4TLsSF3-XO1cIvkM_bAqAdaGNWs80= 1uWVqEAWFD8gsYO5l0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31668589 31308641 30858710 30508774 29719017 29639148
    29859300 30179343 30699363 31239360 31729329 31909270
    32508605 32418578 32148567 31858582 31668589=20


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