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ACUS11 KWNS 151002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151002=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-151230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and adjacent
Mississippi coastal areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 151002Z - 151230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will overspread the region,
including much of the Greater New Orleans area, through 6-9 AM CDT,
with some potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will
be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.
DISCUSSION...Lift along the leading edge of an east-southeastward
advancing convectively driven surface cold pool has been maintaining
modest renewed convective development. This has included embedded thunderstorms, the strongest of which have been inland of the
Louisiana coast, where the cold pool convection has been merging
with preceding convection forced by low-level warm advection, along
a diffuse warm frontal zone near the coast.=20
There has been, perhaps, a very gradual general increase in
convective intensity evident over the past few hours, in advance of
a weak frontal wave, which appears likely to migrate eastward across southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi through 14-16Z. The
latest Rapid Refresh suggests that there may not be much further
strengthening of an associated southwesterly low-level jet
(including speeds of 30-35+ kt around 850 mb), but a gradual
low-level moistening across southeastern Louisiana coastal areas
toward the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity may contribute to further
weak boundary-layer destabilization.=20=20
It is possible that this could become sufficient to support
additional, occasional thunderstorm intensification through daybreak
and beyond. Enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs,
though generally modest, might become supportive of isolated
supercell structures accompanied by the risk for a tornado.=20
Otherwise, locally strong surface gusts possibly approaching severe
limits probably is the primary hazard.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/15/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t7Hl5TdNAIHkFaA_vxaBn4pT8ohgjb3FWgfejGNmjMq4Z1S-HsKkkSFk-IETNYU6FSeGB8s4$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
LAT...LON 30409046 30428884 29998850 29418869 29038948 29039076
29309115 29809097 30409046=20
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