1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1350

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 04, 2022 00:28:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 040028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040028=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-040300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1350
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0728 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southeast North
    Dakota...Far Western Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 040028Z - 040300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase across parts of northeast
    South Dakota and southeast North Dakota over the next couple of
    hours. Weather watch issuance may become necessary across parts of
    the eastern Dakotas into far western Minnesota later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery shows an east-to-west corridor
    of convective development currently taking place across northeast
    South Dakota. This corridor is located within an area of outflow,
    near a minimum of instability from earlier storms. Further to the
    north, into southeast North Dakota, surface heating into the lower
    80s F, has resulted in moderate destabilization. The RAP suggests
    MLCAPE is currently in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range across southeast
    North Dakota. The HRRR develops storms near Mobridge, South Dakota
    later this evening, and moves a small cluster east-northeastward
    across southeast North Dakota. The instability combined with
    moderate deep-layer shear, evident on WSR-88D VWPs, will be
    favorable for a severe threat. Steep mid-level lapse rates will make
    isolated large hail possible with rotating cells. Wind damage will
    may also occur, especially if convective coverage increases later
    this evening.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Oios76j9Azd2_vUG1vxbp8h5Pt-3Vm2-CLZ8g17YVYqcad6ypMsZMFbZCJpRQ3IntMTVxnkS= S4_Rhw66YF2p9pp2uY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45099718 45149849 45209938 45419994 45660010 45930017
    46310022 46630000 46889946 47079860 47249765 47239719
    47159684 46929646 46519625 46069623 45459647 45099718=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 30, 2023 01:53:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 300153
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300153=20
    NEZ000-300330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1350
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0853 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western into central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

    Valid 300153Z - 300330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe winds will remain a concern across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 421, especially in the path of a bow-echo MCS for
    the next few hours. Large hail may also accompany a preceding
    supercell for the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...A mature MCS has materialized across western NE, and
    continues to accelerate eastward. The MCS has taken on bow-echo characteristics, with both MRMS mosaic radar data showing a book-end
    vortex to the north of the bow apex, with cross-sections of KLNX
    radar data revealing strong, descending inbound velocities behind
    the apex, indicative of a rear-inflow jet. As such, severe wind
    gusts may accompany this MCS. However, lower-level shear below 5 km
    (and especially in the surface-3 km layer) remains weak across
    western into central NE, so confidence in a long-lasting, robust
    severe-wind threat is not overly high. Nonetheless, at least a few
    severe gusts should remain possible into tonight. Furthermore,
    severe hail (perhaps exceeding 2 inches in diameter) remains
    possible with a discrete supercell ahead of the bow echo, until this
    storm is absorbed into the leading line. It is also possible that
    the merging of the bow echo and supercell may briefly augment the
    severe wind threat.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-YIO05MlVdMK-CR2Cwwlq7WKHR5NdfGWYzXOeJQooLPD5xR40MFww-4KAaUl5AF1BOHEC-sxg= ACMnJwGJicMCYRDVOo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41710264 42680219 42930135 42969984 42669928 41799920
    41189929 40880013 40940149 41110234 41710264=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)