• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1341

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 03, 2022 19:49:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 031949
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031949=20
    SDZ000-WYZ000-032145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1341
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

    Areas affected...Extreme northeast WY into western/central SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 031949Z - 032145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is possible later this
    afternoon, with a threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
    Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...At 1940Z, towering cumulus has developed across the
    northern Black Hills vicinity, with other boundary-layer cumulus
    gradually increasing across parts of far eastern WY into western SD.
    In the short term, any storm development is likely to remain
    isolated, due to lingering MLCINH, but continued
    heating/destabilization ahead of a weak midlevel vorticity maximum
    moving across eastern WY will likely support a greater coverage of
    storms by late afternoon.=20

    Modest midlevel southwesterly flow will support sufficient effective
    shear for storm organization later this afternoon into the evening,
    especially where low-level flow remains somewhat backed to the north
    of a differential heating/mixing boundary that is moving slowly
    northward across southwest SD. A couple of supercells may eventually
    develop with time, with moderate-to-strong buoyancy supporting an
    initial threat of hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter).
    A conditional threat for a tornado or two will also be present with
    any sustained supercell, given modest but sufficient low-level
    shear. Isolated severe gusts will be also possible with any
    supercell, with some potential for storm clustering and a greater
    severe wind threat by early evening.=20

    In order to address these threats, Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance is likely later this afternoon, once a greater coverage of
    severe thunderstorm development appears imminent.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9npMd0itRiLAmnQKOWcIt-A7NVwaJ5Vx9oS2ywMbRjzpkECN3YMlZG2mHxvU8uXRlIAt-ejJ= KgH84WiPRDfdXqBuMA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43630095 43230211 43100323 43120374 43200406 43490431
    43820440 44130439 44760420 45400368 45710317 45600215
    45260118 44930081 44560067 44030063 43630095=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 29, 2023 19:59:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 291959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291959=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-292200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1341
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...southern/eastern Indiana into southwestern Ohio and
    northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...417...

    Valid 291959Z - 292200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415, 417
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Although the organized cluster of storms is weakening,
    strong to severe gusts may persist with remnant outflow
    overspreading the region through 6-7 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Latest trends in lightning data and radar/satellite
    imagery indicate notable weakening trends are underway with the
    southeastward propagating convective system. However, the
    associated cold pool and rear inflow jet remain strong, and
    southeastward propagation has accelerated a bit further at up to 60
    kt near the apex of the bow echo in radar reflectivities. Surface
    gusts to 60+ have been recently recorded in observation sites at
    Lawrenceville IL and Crawfordsville, Indianapolis IN.=20=20

    These peak gusts, mainly beneath the lingering rear inflow jet,
    should begin to diminish more rapidly with further weakening of the
    convection during the next couple of hours. However, at its current
    forward propagation, it may cross the remainder of southeastern
    Indiana, southwestern Ohio and the Blue Grass into Coalfields of
    central into southeastern Kentucky by 22-23Z.

    ..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6M0pblxUv7ydYHNrfRteebmP_oeqmEyOiVfFmkfkhhrv1ozF6xAUG9Mk9TJoXv-vuCh_KSRWm= -CnY_J1y5-SM3Di4c8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 40018597 40018508 39498333 38898288 37768365 37038551
    37278686 38118796 38618654 40018597=20


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