• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1331

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 21:44:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 022144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022143=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-030015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1331
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0443 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

    Areas affected...North-central Idaho...Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022143Z - 030015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely from late this
    afternoon into early this evening across parts of the northern
    Rockies and northern High Plains. A marginal wind-damage and hail
    threat will be possible, but weather watch issuance appears
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
    ridging pattern over the northern Rockies, with a subtle shortwave
    trough evident in the flow over southern Montana. An axis of weak
    instability extends east-to-west across central Montana, and then west-southwestward into north-central Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms
    are developing along and near the instability axis late this
    afternoon. Near the instability axis, the RAP has 0-6 km shear in
    the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates generally above
    8.0 C/km. In spite of the weak instability, this environment should
    be sufficient for hail and isolated damaging wind gusts with the
    stronger cells. The threat is expected to gradually increase over
    the next couple of hours, but should remain too marginal for weather
    watch issuance.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9yW-ci2aqTBSWOQCCkUeXGkF24yjqEhyGeCs0C7E7_P4NgKIUxHcjGwWT-EyrZl0aVoPK6iU-= FeuEX9_stgYmydWzsA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

    LAT...LON 45881359 45521420 45141503 45081559 45101604 45361662
    45761676 46271660 46691615 47111502 47131498 47641274
    47951023 48010950 48040879 47870766 47740714 47540648
    47190596 46810579 46400607 46340665 46410759 46490889
    46401086 46241225 45881359=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 29, 2023 10:19:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 291018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291018=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-291215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1331
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northern MO...extreme northeastern
    KS...far southern IA...and far west-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 291018Z - 291215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely
    be needed to address and increasing threat for damaging winds and
    large hail as thunderstorms spread eastward this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells capable of producing very large
    hail and severe/damaging winds are ongoing early this morning across southeastern NE into north-central KS. A strongly unstable airmass
    is present downstream of these thunderstorms along/near a surface
    front that is draped east-west along/near the IA/MO border. MUCAPE
    of 3000-4000 J/kg across this area is being supported by steep
    mid-level lapse rates and a moist low-level airmass. A belt of
    modestly enhanced mid-level flow also extends from the
    northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest on the southern
    periphery of an upper trough. A veering/strengthening wind profile
    with height through mid levels is shown in recent VWPs from
    KTOP/KEAX, along with a 35-50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet.
    35-45+ kt of effective bulk shear will support continued updraft
    organization and intensity, with supercells and a large hail threat
    remaining possible.

    Most high-resolution guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster
    will consolidate along or perhaps just south of the IA/MO border in
    northern MO. This cluster should pose an increasing threat for
    severe/damaging winds as it spreads eastward across this area and
    towards the MS River through the morning. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance will likely be needed downstream of the ongoing supercells
    across northern MO and vicinity.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Z_KNVH4lvGauYYZBM9gqwOgUVk2mzsnLS7xqebKj9o-pahcrNWe0N_i4pNC9RFGcI5Ev-68N= RWm-7e5viXYBKjJrDc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 40059528 40619567 40759479 40719186 40409114 39919091
    39469138 39479490 40059528=20


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