• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 21:44:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 022144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022143=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-022345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0443 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022143Z - 022345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway, and a
    couple instances of large hail or strong/damaging gusts are possible
    into the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular thunderstorms have percolated in
    intensity across northern Oklahoma over the past hour, with
    convective initiation underway in southern Kansas near Wichita.
    These storms are developing off of a diffuse baroclinic zone, with
    the majority of low-level lift driven by strong diurnal heating. The
    strongly heated and moistened airmass is contributing to 2000+ J/kg
    MLCAPE given near 70 F surface dewpoints overspread by modest lapse
    rates. Despite the moderate buoyancy in place, tropospheric wind
    fields and associated deep-layer shear is relatively weak. As such,
    storms mode should remain pulse cellular, with a couple of
    multicellular clusters possible. The stronger storm cores may
    support sparse instances of large hail and strong, potentially
    damaging gusts into the evening hours.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-n6-BCvWYkDoKDCO9yDHdzb7o3cPzsD3ZlWo0P3WNCrwg2Fsb1EiY3A7IoHsin6IfNl9cnJ4G= Ef_heaissEnV7Lbfz0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 35789917 36829873 37699773 38109720 38179558 37909542
    37389580 36589687 35939766 35669807 35579852 35789917=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 21:53:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 022153
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022152=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-022345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022152Z - 022345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway, and a
    couple instances of large hail or strong/damaging gusts are possible
    into the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular thunderstorms have percolated in
    intensity across northern Oklahoma over the past hour, with
    convective initiation underway in southern Kansas near Wichita.
    These storms are developing off of a diffuse baroclinic zone, with
    the majority of low-level lift driven by strong diurnal heating. The
    strongly heated and moistened airmass is contributing to 2000+ J/kg
    MLCAPE given near 70 F surface dewpoints overspread by modest lapse
    rates. Despite the moderate buoyancy in place, tropospheric wind
    fields and associated deep-layer shear is relatively weak. As such,
    storms mode should remain pulse cellular, with a couple of
    multicellular clusters possible. The stronger storm cores may
    support sparse instances of large hail and strong, potentially
    damaging gusts into the evening hours.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4G_u4qhGapPgv80tsin6-7sgr5idcB05oGNEe9CgSpnjRCm-Ro9yORsoTCbKwhTskDYUf5KcM= kNsX76uTj0Axs7ezEc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 35789917 36829873 37699773 38109720 38179558 37909542
    37389580 36589687 35939766 35669807 35579852 35789917=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 29, 2023 09:07:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 290907
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290906=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-291030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0406 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern NE and northern KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

    Valid 290906Z - 291030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail (2+ inches) and 60-75 mph
    severe wind gusts will likely continue with a supercell/small
    cluster moving eastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell along the NE/KS border has
    produced very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and significant severe/damaging winds across far southern NE over the past 1-2
    hours. The airmass downstream of this supercell will remain very
    favorable for continued convective organization/intensity, as strong
    MUCAPE overlaps enhanced deep-layer shear. A 50+ kt
    south-southwesterly low-level jet and related warm/moist advection
    feeding into this convection will also aid the maintenance of
    intense updrafts. Very large hail (2+ inches) will remain a concern
    in the short term with this supercell. Recent velocity data from
    KUEX also shows strong inbound velocities along the NE/KS border.
    Ample DCAPE and steep lapse rates aloft should allow for a continued
    threat of severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph as these
    thunderstorms spread eastward across south-central NE and
    north-central KS over the next couple of hours. Additional
    thunderstorms have developed farther east of this supercell in the
    strong low-level warm advection regime. This activity may also pose
    a threat for large hail if it strengthens further and acquires
    supercell characteristics.

    ..Gleason.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6sNCI-UxP3ozkJsBgzIv3LmlnfkNi9kK5bKruWKljuTNO34Isgp8xCx9kaBXVrYWAkXOnancE= ekV92OeL3cs5c4ZZvQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40359951 40519894 40529689 40339636 39959613 39599643
    39609794 39659915 39819957 40359951=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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