• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1329

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 20:56:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 022056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022055=20
    IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-022300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1329
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022055Z - 022300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms will be capable of
    wind damage and marginally severe hail. Limited buoyancy will keep
    the severe threat marginal. No watch is expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level forcing continues to overspread the
    Pacific Northwest. Thunderstorms have developed mainly within the
    Cascades and the Blue Mountains. Within the Columbia Basin, cumulus
    also is deepening. Storms along the eastern Cascade slopes have
    shown some signs of moving off of the terrain. With time, additional
    storms are expected to form and move off of the higher terrain as
    well. Development within the Basin is less certain, however. Given
    cold temperatures aloft, fairly minimal moisture has still supported
    250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. The greatest buoyancy is within northeast
    Oregon where dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 40s F (this area
    would be more favorable for an organized supercell). Strong
    cloud-bearing shear will support some risk for marginally severe
    hail in the stronger storms. Isolated damaging winds are possible as
    well due to the deep/well-mixed boundary layer. The limited buoyancy
    should generally limit the severe threat. A watch is not expected
    this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_um2G8nOKpPzrDi4w_OGegMNRaRNr0413Ic_qhtVBW2JwIekvitPvPCdf5JinQraDTUFJ6Pll= kIhj-GrZAWvPHp5oZc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

    LAT...LON 44282175 45961937 46211742 45511659 44131720 43052036
    42762111 43422188 44282175=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 29, 2023 07:21:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 290721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290720=20
    ILZ000-290945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1329
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 290720Z - 290945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail with elevated supercells may
    increase over the next few hours. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent IR satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
    with developing convection across parts of central IL. This activity
    is likely being aided by low-level warm advection and related ascent
    on the nose of a 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet that extends
    across MO into central IL. A sharp instability gradient is also
    present over IL based on latest mesoanalysis, extending almost due
    north to south into western KY. The convection appears to be
    developing along this MUCAPE gradient, and most high-resolution
    guidance suggests these thunderstorms will increase in both coverage
    and intensity over the next few hours.

    The initial thunderstorms may be elevated supercells given a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels,
    and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Large hail should be the main
    threat with these supercells. Some potential will also exist for
    upscale growth into small bowing clusters, which would probably tend
    to develop south-southeastward along the instability gradient.
    Severe/damaging winds would become an increasing threat with any
    cluster that develops, as a large reservoir of buoyancy and strong
    DCAPE should partially offset the MLCIN present. Convective trends
    will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Fyq0Jwmjv9D8eEQv87AHieUT3a6JXgjDlHVTt41c_qXRt6-2B7bbzXE83PbPfZ7AB9J7xavH= mR-blivGAVl3ZtXVDk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38718958 39458992 40529038 41079021 41088887 40728831
    40008792 39218779 38468784 38228830 38238914 38718958=20


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