• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1320

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 02, 2022 00:36:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 020035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020035=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-020200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1320
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Ohio into northern
    Pennsylvania and southeast New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020035Z - 020200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or instances of large hail may
    accompany the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to
    remain isolated and brief.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively robust uptick in convective coverage and
    intensity has been noted across parts of the central Appalachians
    into the Hudson Valley over the past hour or so, with regional
    WSR-88D and MRMS radar data showing the development of both linear
    clusters and shorter lived transient supercells. These storms are
    developing in a corridor of higher destabilization (given the
    overall lack of earlier convection). The 00z PIT observed sounding
    and mesoanalysis show near 70 F surface dewpoints overspread by 7+
    C/km low-level lapse rates, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. In
    both data sources, modest veering and strengthening of the vertical
    wind profile are resulting in widespread 40+ kts of effective bulk
    shear. As such, any storms that can intensify and become sustained
    may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and large hail for the
    next couple of hours, before buoyancy appreciably diminishes with
    the onset of nocturnal cooling.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4WmO3VI0JwA5xyD9HbNEAMF7wuzy0kFyzrEb2TD9ZEZoBhI6nEum96QRNl3YbmFP59KWYy7ge= ezzKCM19CzQ4rSNML0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 40968141 41847965 42697592 42787511 42397451 41827455
    41317507 40917572 40597693 40467794 40417916 40438075
    40968141=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 28, 2023 20:09:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 282009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282009=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-282215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1320
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

    Areas affected...east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 282009Z - 282215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A rapidly developing supercell or two appears possible by
    5-7 PM CDT, before storms begin to consolidate into an organizing
    cluster. This will be accompanied by a risk for large hail and
    perhaps a tornado, before strong wind gusts becomes the more
    prominent hazard this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Downstream of a developing low over central Minnesota,
    a focused new area of thunderstorm development to the southwest of
    Duluth appears largely rooted within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. Models suggest that this
    will generally be maintained through the remainder of the afternoon,
    as the leading edge of a narrow plume of more substantive low-level
    moisture return occurs on south-southwesterly flow across
    southwestern through east central Minnesota. It appears that this
    will become supportive of rapid boundary-layer destabilization
    characterized by mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg,
    on the southwestern periphery of the initial elevated storm
    development.=20=20

    While this also may tend to coincide with warming and increasingly
    capping mid-level air advecting from southwest to northeast across
    the upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, it appears that a window of
    opportunity may exist for rapidly intensifying boundary-based
    thunderstorm development. Beneath 30-50 kt westerly mid-level flow,
    this may include an isolated supercell or two. Before subsequently
    tending to grow upscale into an organizing cluster, this activity
    may pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xx2bFNM9EjL0zYRX7sMfiIk_iPTtwT2Wtb70BAbiFAWvk7r7wj-yT4MDAelUSO3tFgoMib9z= __yDbU58FrCf3JXDfo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

    LAT...LON 46019320 46029230 45699128 45379125 44649146 44779238
    45009338 46019320=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)