ACUS11 KWNS 012052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012052=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Areas affected...Central/east-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012052Z - 012245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two is possible along the cold
front in central/east-central Kansas this afternoon. Isolated
damaging winds and large hail are possible. A conditional threat for
a brief tornado exists as well. A watch is not anticipated, but
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have formed along the cold front in
central Kansas. Surface winds remain backed near the boundary and
have contributed to 35-40 kts of shear. Given the weak forcing, this environment would support isolated splitting supercells. Mid-level
lapse rates are quite modest, but a rotating cell could produce
large hail. Damaging winds would also be possible. Given the backed
surface winds, a brief tornado could occur should stronger supercell
favorably interact with the boundary. With only a couple marginal
supercells expected, no watch is anticipated.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!43kPHAsoDUTPQ4B9RQE2PB4erpCJaayv96l1ABonTr89I1I_BNKh6dBaLQb-t89tBFfQykQn8= A77vc0Gcm8CxLBVQXs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38319800 38589737 38699600 38449481 37969454 37779536
37749738 37879785 38319800=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 280612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280612=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-280745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Extreme Southeast KS...Far Southwest
MO...Far Northwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

Valid 280612Z - 280745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are expected to persist as the ongoing
convective system continues east-southeastward across northeast OK
and into far southwest MO and northwest AR.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized mesoscale convective system continues
to progress east-southeastward across northeast OK and extreme
southeast KS at 40 to 45 kt. Severe gusts have been measured
throughout the life of this MCS, including a 55 kt gust at Newkirk
in northern Kay County OK. Low-level stability will persist
throughout the downstream air mass, but strong ascent attendant to
the deep cold pool, combined with ample low-level moisture and steep
mid-level lapse rates, is expected to sustain the system for the
next few hours. Stronger buoyancy exists ahead of the southern
portion of the line, and a trend towards more southeastward motion
is anticipated. Current storm motion takes the MCS to the edge of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 around 0730Z, and another watch will
likely be needed downstream across portions of far southwest MO and
northwest AR to cover the anticipated severe threat later tonight.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40FGMJa1xmrnTJHWOmsEz_vTSMfOIkRKRrBxewsrOJL0T3rjDWxL6mJ1Jf37D6FpZj4Nhokqe= K_4ys3vVzymZCj6MAo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37189627 37279527 36899395 36429330 35489409 36199671
37189627=20


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