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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1317

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 01, 2022 20:40:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 012040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012039=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

    Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado...northeast New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 012039Z - 012245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
    will be possible as storms move from the higher terrain into the
    southeast Colorado plains.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
    intensity from the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the Raton Mesa.
    Mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values are not overly impressive
    this afternoon and are not expected to improve significantly.
    However, modest westerly flow across the divide (25-35 kts of
    effective shear) will at least promote a few supercell structures
    capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. With time,
    further destabilization within the Plains to the east should allow
    activity to move off of the terrain. Large surface dewpoint
    depressions will promote strong/severe outflow gusts and a cluster
    or two could develop and move into western Kansas and western
    combined Panhandles vicinity. Given marginal moisture and storm
    organization, a watch is not anticipated this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8W0K0ktpkQoXPxzq-Y2jY6j5ZoqbqutOOHKUUhtJuhq0Q-krom8fM0SRc5RyW0h1HxSEFTAe= Tk-PermygXO1-uLWLA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37100469 38110500 38320509 38630525 39050530 39090523
    39140352 39030303 38220214 38170210 37190207 36700274
    36390359 36360412 37100469=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 28, 2023 03:36:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 280336
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280335=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-280500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central KS into
    north-central/northeastern OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

    Valid 280335Z - 280500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds should continue
    tonight. Downstream watch issuance will probably be needed into
    parts of northeastern OK.

    DISCUSSION...The small bowing complex along the KS/OK border has
    decreased in intensity over the past hour or so. The 00Z sounding
    from LMN (Lamont OK) shows very strong MLCIN and a dry layer from
    around 850 to 500 mb, which is likely hindering more robust
    updrafts. The southward extent of the severe risk into central OK
    should also be hindered by a substantial cap in the 850-700 mb layer
    noted on the 00Z OUN sounding. Still, the threat for severe/damaging
    winds up to 60-75 mph will probably continue with the ongoing
    cluster in north-central OK/south-central KS in the short term given
    sufficient instability and shear to maintain updraft intensity and organization. This activity should spread east-southeastward over
    the next few hours along a stalled surface front that extends into
    northeastern OK. Even with some MLCIN present, a threat for
    scattered damaging winds will probably continue into northeastern
    OK. Accordingly, downstream watch issuance into this area will
    probably be needed.

    ..Gleason.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60ieLwE1mqZFxlG3-stdqCPub8w5CJsIMRG8aY9DJLwCkQXn3neISRfBLKbkeVRPNn4BMrUqv= GHw2dD7cqs31Z4AHp4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37009875 37339833 37409775 37189550 36419490 35949510
    35859579 35999682 36469849 37009875=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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