• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1314

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 01, 2022 16:00:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 011559
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011559=20
    PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-011830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1314
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

    Areas affected...Western/northern MD...Eastern WV...Southern
    PA...Northern VA...Northern DE...DC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 011559Z - 011830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity this afternoon, with a threat of isolated damaging wind
    gusts and possibly some hail.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been increasing late this
    morning across southern PA into eastern WV, within a zone of richer
    moisture in the 925-850 mb layer depicted in the 12Z PIT sounding
    and recent objective mesoanalyses. Diurnal heating and continued
    low-level moisture transport will support an increase in
    thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon, as convection
    gradually spreads eastward toward the I-95 corridor. MLCAPE
    increasing above 2000 J/kg will support vigorous updrafts, though
    marginal effective shear (generally in the 20-30 kt range) will
    limit storm organization to some extent. Steepening low-level lapse
    rates will support a threat of locally damaging wind gusts this
    afternoon, and isolated hail will also be possible with the
    strongest cells. With storm organization expected to remain rather
    limited, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 07/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9JaINgaHIyxiewxJuV4qBDO2A-U40AVcIpV4oJMbNMigrDKlommaKoi5HnaxfHBPFVKmIErSx= 2iLvzSnaZjt9JcZG4w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 40318004 40797727 40687595 40387568 39597557 39257544
    38777663 38507779 38257883 38347938 38657995 39108031
    39768044 40318004=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 28, 2023 00:26:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 280026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280026=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-280230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1314
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0726 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central SD/NE into north-central KS.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 280026Z - 280230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms upstream may continue to pose a risk for
    large hail and severe gusts into this evening. One or more
    downstream watches are being considered.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last 2 hours, multiple clusters of strong to
    severe storms across portions of western SD and NE have matured,
    with reports of severe wind gusts and large to very large hail. As
    storms continue to track eastward, the environment downstream
    remains generally favorable for storm maintenance with moderate
    buoyancy, but some lingering inhibition. This suggests there may be
    an eastern limit to severe potential, but exactly where remains
    uncertain. 45-55 kt of effective shear will continue to support
    storm organization with recent trends suggesting upscale growth into
    one or more clusters is possible. Large hail and severe wind gusts
    will remain possible with these storms as they track eastward across
    SD and NE. One or more downstream, watches may be needed to cover
    the threat this evening.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9A5Plf4-ifU1YXxt_gSic_Y6norGog_npg0-Bi-Yq6hkEijzZBM8i6fOQhpGnPwbdZyOzT26u= aQZws3RYOYISn80v-I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

    LAT...LON 43169761 41939812 39719895 39239936 39269977 39459994
    39740015 42700078 44660102 45160122 45280105 45340077
    45409956 45219841 44649789 43889756 43169761=20


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