ACUS11 KWNS 010018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010017=20
NEZ000-WYZ000-010145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 010017Z - 010145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue pulsing
in intensity through sunset along the Wyoming/Nebraska border. An
instance or two of large hail/severe gusts is possible over the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...Relatively robust thunderstorms have developed along
the higher terrain across portions of southeast Wyoming and are
propagating into a warm airmass (i.e. mid 80s F surface
temperatures) contributing to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Coinciding with this
buoyancy is 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, driven primarily by
strong veering with height in the 700-500 mb layer, also comprised
of 8 C/km lapse rates. While the magnitude of large scale forcing
and tropospheric winds are weak, the aforementioned mid-level lapse
rates and 9+ C/km 0-3 km lapse rates may support a couple of
damaging gusts or instances of large hail before nocturnal cooling/boundary-layer stabilization sets in. A WW issuance is not
expected given the localized, brief and isolated nature of the
severe threat.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44Zhkl-BQjjJfBQyx6Z_ZoW-W0LwKnbK-OpeD_73-X-z5f2x2pohk_OgqfGdOw6oHFdh5XGtq= 8jM1isVM0uJA3WxhIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 41120519 41360531 41960515 42410498 42540480 42580415
42580360 42540313 42530284 41880268 41370276 41150316
41080392 41120519=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 280021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280020=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-280215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...far eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

Valid 280020Z - 280215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW404.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to move southward
across far eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Reports of
gusts to 48 mph have been observed over the last couple of hours
across Monroe, LA and near Vicksburg and Natchez Mississippi. Some
weakening has been observed over the last hour, particularly in the
eastward extent of the line across central Mississippi. Radar
analysis indicates outflow has begun to advance out ahead of the
eastern portion of the line. Ahead of the line, ample instability
(MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg) will continue to support the threat
for damaging winds and occasional small hail as the line moves
southward. For now, the best threat appears to be along the western
flank, where storms remain more organized with tops to 50 kft.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fS9fTPKD1IDDfrdtT-DaJYbcRuoGdKH94rbvWbIny1cDwGvHYnqEbT5vdkCnUTj06IF8e9lt= Vdw1NqW73UVC85KoY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 31158964 30958996 30989107 30999148 31129181 31249192
31569197 31789190 32029178 32099170 32229125 32289072
32379022 32268977 31998963 31558943 31288950 31158964=20


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