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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1310

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 30, 2022 20:10:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 302010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302009=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-302215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1310
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

    Areas affected...northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 302009Z - 302215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 21/22Z with a threat of
    large hail and a few strong wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Conditions continue to destabilize ahead of the cold
    front, with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Cool midlevel temperatures are
    spreading east coincident with the low-amplitude shortwave trough,
    and this will steepen midlevel lapse rates aloft further. In
    addition, deep-layer shear is increasing to over 55 kt, with
    primarily straight hodographs.

    Storms are expected to form along the cold front over far northern
    WI and into western Upper MI after 21/22Z or coincident with peak
    heating. Southwesterly winds increasing to 40 kt at 850 mb will
    maintain a theta-e plume ahead of the front, providing a narrow zone
    of severe potential for a few hours. The aforementioned long
    hodographs will favor cellular activity capable of large hail, with
    a few severe gusts possible as well. While low-level shear and SRH
    is not very strong, a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out by
    virtue of cellular storm mode and steep midlevel lapse rates.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kRXvxOaRH8BkDq3f83WhbEUaFOohxa6oHAlEPTi2euCHutmpdaa4OLW7F1aau-cd7ZD18JK-= KvEdlIsa0d4Qf8uSkw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45938656 45158952 44789123 44859187 45109212 45369209
    45689199 46219148 46679037 46868942 46978848 47008718
    46948625 46888516 46798491 46608500 46168605 45938656=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 22:33:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 272233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272232=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-NDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1310
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western South
    Dakota...the Nebraska Panhandle and far northeast Colorado/northwest
    Kansas.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...403...

    Valid 272232Z - 280000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401, 403
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms across WW401 and WW403 are
    expected to gradually increase in coverage and intensity late this
    afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail and damaging
    winds are likely with the strongest storms, which may take some time
    to mature.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
    area of thunderstorms, and new convective development taking place
    across portions of eastern WY, western SD, northeast CO and the
    western NE Panhandle. Early afternoon WV imagery shows a mid-level
    speed max moving over the area, aiding in subtle height falls and
    broad-scale ascent. This, along with warm temperatures and moderate
    upslope flow has removed most of the inhibition across portions of
    the central High Plains. However, some inhibition is lingering
    farther east where surface moisture has mixed to a greater degree.
    While this may delay storm intensification (especially south)
    somewhat, 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kt of effective shear will
    eventually support storm organization into supercells and short line
    segments. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts appear likely
    as storms intensify into this evening. A brief tornado is also
    possible with the more discrete supercells, though overall low-level
    shear is fairly modest. The severe threat appears to be generally
    increasing across portions of western SD, western/central NE, and
    northeast CO over the next couple of hours.

    ..Lyons.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wlJYuZRUZrXvIL80wkhct1PZMuEGy9IB9G1IcIThlARGxcAZ7PlBFc7c4aGKeWbKn_TTMeAI= QIpwIwYlltbTbGvoGs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 39820253 40010317 40730368 41430371 41940390 42490435
    42710472 43570512 44210507 44550490 44980453 45140416
    45640355 45990305 45920208 45430128 45020074 44390021
    42340044 41260066 40230094 39810202 39820253=20


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