ACUS11 KWNS 300426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300426=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-300630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Areas affected...Southeast ND...Extreme Northeast SD...West-Central
MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 300426Z - 300630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts remain possible primarily near
the ND/SD border, south of JMS, into west-central MN.

DISCUSSION...Earlier high-based convection that developed along the
pre-frontal surface trough has weakened considerably as it
progressed into southwest MN. While gusty winds remain possible with
the weakening convection, most of this activity should remain sub
severe. However, thunderstorms that developed immediately ahead of
the short-wave trough along the front have tracked along the ND/SD
border and a loosely organized cluster is currently noted just south
of JMS. This activity is expected to progress east along a boundary
that is draped across this region into west-central MN over the next
few hours. Latest diagnostic data suggest the greatest buoyancy
resides along/north of this boundary which should result in a
greater concentration of storms across the northern portions of
ww415.

..Darrow.. 06/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8qVhyBEjUqpddPKVVxxsDHVW0XLqzS2GDc7moF7Znrm_46ThK8IvUqPQ_lFCLfSQP40gJc1FR= heOkEfqBWR53SF7al8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46949958 47269583 45939556 45939944 46949958=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 272127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272127=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AR into northeastern
LA and central/southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 272127Z - 272300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds appears to be increasing.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently intensified on the southern
flank/outflow from an MCV generated by prior convection across
AR/OK. The airmass downstream of these thunderstorms is extremely
unstable and very moist, with latest mesoanalysis estimating 4000+
J/kg of MLCAPE is present along/south of a weak front. While
low-level flow is modest, mid-level north-northwesterly winds do
slightly increase to around 20-30 kt per area VWPs. This may be
enough, along with the MCV circulation, to maintain convective intensity/multicell structures as these thunderstorms spread
southeastward this evening. Scattered damaging winds will likely be
the main threat with this activity, but isolated large hail may
occur with cells developing ahead of the cluster. Given recent radar
trends, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed
soon.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qBkdBs_VBf60CLCR5aOsig5aj1vZVlwsuSabEUpLGlzl2f24Gj8jYCUesNrw5KxgHOMapCvm= LIifMYH8ouz5BuAFjE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...SHV...

LAT...LON 33169179 33509122 33048983 32498899 31948899 31388927
31028981 31019110 31379192 32399293 32949293 33169179=20


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